Republicans are still favored to retake the House, but last night was an extreme disappointment. Despite the rising crime, an economic recession, and high inflation, there was no red wave. This political climate was probably the best to generate a red wave, but it never materialized. If you can’t sell freedom and liberty, you suck—and the GOP sucked hard on election night. Still, the GOP has an 83 percent chance to reclaim the lower chamber next year.
“I think we get to 218,” said one senior Republican to Fox News’ Chad Pergram:
1) “I THINK we get to 218.”
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
Those were the words of one senior Republican who understands House elections at a granular level.
Republicans are still believing they will have the majority in the House. But it could be by a razor-thin margin.
2) “It’s not going to be the majority everyone had hoped,” said one member of the House GOP leadership brass to Fox. “Maybe we’ll get to 230.”
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
3) Republicans will try to use that “230” figure as a benchmark. That’s the same number of seats Republicans won in 1994 when they flipped control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
4) But it’s far from clear if the GOP can get anywhere close to 230 and instead by mired in the low 220s.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
A party needs 218 votes to control the House.
“We will be in the majority,” said one Republican. “And that’s nothing to mope about.”
5) Fox is told that Republicans are trying to figure out what went wrong when expectations were so high. Was there an issue with polling?
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
6) As Fox reported yesterday, in the wave election of 2010, the bottom fell out for Democrats in the early fall. The bottom never dropped out at all this time.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
Also, in 2020, Republicans won nearly every single toss-up race. This time around, several incumbents lost.
7) The problem?
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
“(Former President) Trump is killing them with independents,” confided one well placed Republican source with ties to Congress and the former administration.
8) One Republican source said that Mr. Trump on the ballot is what gets Republicans to the polls. One source who asked not to be identified said the party is going to struggle with that problem as they head toward 2024.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
10) Republicans won in New York seats which President Biden previously carried.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 9, 2022
Also, abortion appeared to be a factor. The race involving former Interior Secretary and former Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) isn’t done yet.
We’ll see, but even a slight GOP House majority cannot remove the sting from last night. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is close to losing re-election, and Dr. Oz lost to a man whose half brain-dead. It couldn’t get much worse.