Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) is running for a third term for the U.S. Senate seat in Utah. Lee isn't facing a challenge from a Democrat this time around, but from an Independent, Evan McMullin. Utah Democrats even forewent supporting a candidate of their own, instead urging people to support McMullin. Lee looks to be facing trouble from his own party as well, as Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has failed to endorse him.
"Mike Lee" was trending on Twitter over Thursday, in part due to chatter surrounding a piece by Mollie Hemingway from The Federalist, "GOP Senators Baffled By Mitt Romney’s Ploy To Oust Mike Lee — And Maybe Thwart A Majority."
In it she writes:
...Unlike every other Republican senator, the 2012 failed Republican presidential candidate is declining to express a preference in Republican Lee’s re-election effort against Democrat-endorsed Evan McMullin.
“I respect [Romney], and I understand that each state has its own dynamics, but I do not understand why he is remaining neutral,” said one Republican senator who asked not to be identified. “Whatever our differences, we all try to support each other around election time.”
Both moderate and conservative senators confirmed the grumbling in the conference. “We should not have to be worried about Utah in any way. I don’t know what he thinks he’s doing, but it’s not going over well, particularly with the [senators] who are up for chairmanships,” said another Republican senator. Neither Lee nor Romney responded to inquiries by press time.
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Romney claimed he couldn’t possibly endorse in the race because he is friends with both candidates, though it’s unclear why he thought his previously unannounced friendship with McMullin would be harmed by him supporting Republican incumbents and nominees, as all other Republican politicians do.
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Romney’s refusal to support Lee, and support his party’s message that they have better solutions to what ails the country than their Democrat counterparts, is making other Republican senators doubt his loyalty to them, observers say.
“If you’re not going to have the back of your colleague in your state who is a fellow Republican, how will I know you’ll have my back?” said one senior Republican staffer, describing the thinking of the conference. “It creates a certain amount of awkwardness in the conference as a whole.”
Say what you will about Romney, but the man has clout in Utah, and will likely hold onto his seat for as long as he wants to. An endorsement from him for Lee could help, but it's also about the principle of it. As Hemingway mentioned later in her piece, "Romney is about as popular with Democrats as he is with Republicans in Utah, holding roughly half of each group’s support. His refusal to endorse in a three-way race would have likely had little substantive effect on who won. But a refusal to endorse a two-way race is much more significant."
Hemingway also references a March 22 column from Harry Olsen, "Mitt Romney’s refusal to endorse Mike Lee is a betrayal of his party," published in The Washington Post.
As he writes:
Trump acolytes have long labeled Sen. Mitt Romney a “RINO” — “Republican in Name Only.” This is an unfair charge, given Romney’s conservative credentials. But Romney is lending credence to his critics by not endorsing his fellow Utah Republican, Sen. Mike Lee, as he seeks reelection.
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It should be a no-brainer for Romney to endorse his fellow Republican. Regaining control of the Senate is one of the GOP’s most important objectives, and that means marshaling every conceivable vote to make that happen. Lee is going to back whomever the Republican senators nominate to become their majority leader, but McMullin has not said which party he will caucus with if elected. Given that he has been endorsed by the Democratic mayor of Salt Lake County and other Democratic leaders, it’s an open question whether he will back the GOP.
Romney nonetheless says he’ll stay above this fray, saying both men are his friends. That’s sweet, but party loyalty matters, too. It’s one thing to disagree within one’s own party; that’s what primaries are for. It’s another to say that one is going to stay out of a general election and essentially tell your own state’s voters that there’s no difference between your party’s nominee and someone backed by your party’s adversaries. If that’s friendship, Lee should start finding better friends.
Olsen spends most of the op-ed mentioning that airing out such differences and preferences is what primaries are for. "Neither Mike Lee nor Republican voters deserve Romney’s behavior. He should quit playing games and back Lee publicly," he closes with.
RealClearPolitics shows a spread of +5 for Lee against McMullin, but only using polling from Desert News/Hinckley Institute.
Hemingway also highlighted issues with such a poll:
A new poll from Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics claims McMullin is only 2 percentage points behind Lee, with a full 16 percent of respondents unsure who they will vote for. The poll is admittedly somewhat difficult to believe, and not just because it was conducted by a pollster with a history of dramatically overstating the electoral appeal of McMullin. The group’s final 2016 poll, for example, showed McMullin losing Utah’s presidential contest by only 2 points to Donald Trump. The final result was that Trump bested McMullin, who actually came in third behind Hillary Clinton, by 25 points.
Even so, the poll suggests the strategy McMullin shared with left-wing allies at The Washington Post and other corporate media — building a coalition of Democrats, independents, and Romney and his supporters — is working at least somewhat according to plan.
Other polling showing the race to be close comes from Evan McMullin himself, who won't cite the source, and who uses it as a fundraising pitch. It's thus likely to be internal polling, and those aren't always worth trusting.
What Mike Lee's doing just isn't right. I'm running against him to lower Americans' health care costs—but I need your help to stand up to the special interest groups backing his campaign. Can you chip in $10 now to support our movement? https://t.co/RsKALep7m4
— Evan McMullin ???? (@EvanMcMullin) September 30, 2022
Matt Whitlock, who has worked in Utah politics, also showed Lee's internal polls to make a point, as well as to highlight how McMullin has an issue with paying vendors.
If you believed @EvanMcMullin's internal polls showing him winning, ask yourself what kind of pollster would do work for a guy who hasn't paid his vendors in 6 years. https://t.co/iyl8TIUK2g
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) September 9, 2022
Pay your vendors.
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) October 5, 2021
It’s been almost 6 years and you have left hardworking campaign workers holding the bill. Why should anyone work for/trust you now? https://t.co/I15WU9LRzs
Many forecasters consider the race to be "Likely Republican," which is significant since it's not the strongest indicator Lee will win re-election. That would be "Solid Republican" or "Safe Republican." Cook Political Report updated their rating last month. Decision Desk HQ, however, still considers the race to be "Solid Republican," giving Lee over a 99 percent chance of winning.
This is Utah we're talking about here, a reliably red state, so Lee will probably do just fine. That Romney refuses to endorse him speaks volumes though nevertheless.