Tipsheet

Republicans Are Closing the Gap in Arizona

Katie Pavlich
Katie Pavlich  |  September 09, 2022 3:45 PM

Republican candidates in Arizona are closing the gap with their Democratic opponents as the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections approach.

According to new polling out Friday afternoon from Emerson College, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and U.S. Senate contender Blake Masters are within the margin of error to win their races. In fact, Lake is tied with Democratic opponent and Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “A stark gender divide exists in the Arizona Senate Election; men break for Masters by a 10-point margin whereas women voters break for Kelly by 13. Additionally, Independent voters favor Kelly over Masters, 46% to 37%.”

In the gubernatorial election, Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Kari Lake are dead even, with 46% support each. Six percent are undecided and 2% plan to support someone else. A majority of voters (54%) expect Lake to win, while 46% expect Hobbs to win the election for Governor. 

Blake Masters, Mark Kelly, and Kari Lake all hold an overall 48% favorability, while 46% of Arizona voters view Katie Hobbs favorably. The intensity of favorability varies per candidate. Thirty-one percent have a very favorable view of Masters while 16% have a somewhat favorable view. Thirty-five percent have a very favorable view of Kelly while 12% have a somewhat favorable view. Similar to Kelly, 25% have a very favorable view of Lake while 13% have a somewhat favorable view. Twenty-seven percent have a very favorable view of Hobbs while 19% have a somewhat favorable view. 

Lake and Masters are both Trump endorsed candidates. As the race tightens, Masters is getting backup from current Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and former Governor Jan Brewer.