GOP Endgame: Rubio vs. Cruz?

Tonight was a step toward the Cruz vs Rubio final act a lot of us are anxious to see.

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) November 11, 2015

In several different moments we watched a preview of the way that Ted Cruz intends to go after Marco Rubio if and when the field begins to winnow and the two of them rise toward the top. Coppins cites a couple of Cruz lines on immigration and sugar subsidies that were clearly implied digs at Rubio; I would add Cruz’s stress on how his own tax and spending plan adds up (it doesn’t, really, but compared to Rubio’s it does) and his attempt to position himself in between Rubio and Paul when the two clashed on foreign policy. Add them all together and you have a clear blueprint for an anti-Rubio offensive: Attack sharply on immigration, find his Floridian weakness on corporate welfare, claim the mantle of fiscal hawkishness at home and cast Rubio as a little too Wilsonian abroad. I’m not sure what to think about the wisdom of unrolling the blueprint without going after Rubio directly. Cruz is probably wise not to explicitly attack his fellow senator just yet, but there’s something too-clever-by-half about the kind of telegraphing he’s engaged in. But still, it’s not like Rubio’s team can’t see what’s coming whether Cruz telegraphs it or not...For now, [Rubio is] smoothly returning to speech material in all his [debate] answers, and that’s working well. But he won’t be allowed to do that indefinitely; at some point Cruz will try to hold his feet to the fire, and then we’ll have a better sense of whether Rubio really deserves the “effective frontrunner” status so many of us have imputed to him...it must be said that Cruz’s positioning is very impressively calibrated at the moment. And if he gets the war with Rubio he’s clearly planning for, then regardless of the outcome we should prepare for some pretty interesting political television this winter — and perhaps this spring as well.

RUBIO: This election is about the future, about what kind of country this nation is gonna be in the 21st century. This next election is actually a generational choice. A choice about what kind of nation we will be in the 21st century. For over two-and-a-half centuries, America’s been a special country, the one place on earth where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything, a nation that’s been a force for good on this planet. But now, a growing number of Americans feel out of place in their own country. We have a society that stigmatizes those that hold cultural values that are traditional. We have a society where people — millions of people — are living paycheck to paycheck. They’re working as hard as they ever have, but they’re living paycheck to paycheck because the economy has changed underneath their feet. We have young Americans who owe thousands of dollars in student loans for a degree that doesn’t lead to a job. For the first time in 35 years, we have more businesses dying than starting, and around the world, every day brings news of a new humiliation for America — many the direct response — direct consequence of decisions made when Hillary Clinton was the secretary of the — of state. And so here’s the truth: this election is about the future, and the Democratic Party, and the political left has no ideas about the future. All their ideas are the same, tired ideas of the past. More government, more spending. For every issue for America, their answer is a new tax on someone, and a new government program. This nation is going to turn the page, and that’s what this election should be about, and, as I said at the first debate, if I am our nominee, they will be the party of the past, we will be the party of the 21st century.

CRUZ: And, Maria, I will note, she’s got a lot of experience, but her u have proven disastrous. If you look at foreign policy, every region in the world has gotten worse. Under her leadership, we abandon the nation of Israel. Under her leadership, radical Islamic terrorism has been on to the rise. Under her leadership, and Obama’s leadership, Iran is getting $100 billion dollars, and on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon. Everything she’s put her hand to, or has touched — and when we talk about the cronyism of Washington, Hillary Clinton embodies the cronyism of Washington. And, I’ll give you an example of that, which is the Congressional exemption from Obamacare, which is fundamentally wrong, and I’ll tell you this, if I’m elected president, I will veto any statute that exempts members of congress. The law should apply evenly to every American.

Rubio gives big picture/generational/narrative answer on Hillary. Cruz specific & prosecutorial. #GOPDebate

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 11, 2015

All of which is to say that, yes, a battle royale between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz would make for absolutely fascinating political theater, in the best sense of the term.  But on what grounds should this possible outcome, for which some in elite conservative circles are evidently yearning, be considered somewhat inevitable, or even all that likely?  Donald Trump and Ben Carson have occupied first place in every major national poll since the beginning of July.  Since early August, their combined support has hovered around 50 percent, with the other dozen candidates divvying up the scraps.  This is not indicative of fleeting, flash-in-the-pan appeal.  We've now gone months with virtually unchanged fundamentals, as the various spikes and swoons of lower-tier candidates have had little impact on the dominant top two.  Before we get carried away, let's lay some caveats into place: Relatively few Republican-leaning voters have fully made up their minds.  Ground game and turnout operations matter a lot, and we're still many weeks away from any actual voting taking place.  And both Rubio and Cruz are building very formidable and well-financed political operations.  That's all true.

What's also true is that in spite of several impressive debate performances and a general consensus that they're both ascendant, adding Rubio and Cruz's RealClearPolitics polling averages together produces a number that's still a few points shy of either Carson or Trump. Same deal in Iowa and New Hampshire, more or less.  GOP debates have drawn record audiences.  People are paying attention.  And two political novices with strange political instincts and undeniable knowledge blindspots have maintained a consistent lead, week after week.  Do analysts spilling gallons of virtual ink hyping the coming heavyweight Rubio vs Cruz showdown have any reason to believe that's how things will actually play out, or does their assumption rest on some version of "this outsider stuff can't possibly last"?  I'll leave you with Rich Lowry picking Cruz as Tuesday's winner, followed by Frank Luntz's focus group giving it to Rubio:

Ted Cruz had a terrific night. He had a stand-out answer on immigration and wages and made his own fortune by getting into an argument with John Kasich on bank bailouts, enunciating the anti-bailout position forcefully and repeatedly (although I don’t really believe he wouldn’t bail out a major financial institution in the midst of a financial panic if he were president). He was pointed, eloquent, and, of course, very conservative. Marco Rubio was very good, as well. But I thought Rubio was slightly better than Cruz last time, and that Cruz was slightly better this time.