There are rumblings about the 2026 blue wave and the Electoral College being threatened. It’s not in the form of a constitutional amendment, but through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Some state legislatures that have now flipped could consider this: it awards a state’s electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. At the time, some on the right argued for this, given that Florida might turn blue. It’s a guardrail against bad policy, and conservatives should be afraid to run on their ideas, even if it induces potential swing-state heartburn.
Pollster Nate Silver made his views on this whole scheme known on social media: he’s dead-set against it. He’s not a fan of the Electoral College and has voiced support for eliminating it, but only through the constitutional amendment process. He’s not for the interstate compact, which he described as unforgivably terrible, likening it to Pandora’s box:
@MattZeitlin While I'd support a constitutional amendment to replace the Electoral College with the popular vote, the interstate compact thing is an unforgivably terrible idea, one of the worst ideas that otherwise smart people think is a good idea, absolute Pandora's Box among other things.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 13, 2026
While I'd support a constitutional amendment to replace the Electoral College with the popular vote, the interstate compact thing is an unforgivably terrible idea, one of the worst ideas that otherwise smart people think is a good idea, absolute Pandora's Box among other things.
In 2017, Townhall attended a seminar on this subject. The one thing that undermines this narrative is Donald J. Trump and Florida's status as a reliable red bastion. Ohio is no longer a swing state, and Trump smashed the blue wall in two of the last three elections.
I’m not afraid to run on conservative ideas; that’s not the point. While I was ambivalent-to-open about it, it’s an interesting topic; it should be considered the political equivalent of tickling the dragon’s tail. First, the idea of a state awarding its electoral votes to someone who didn’t win there seems off, something even liberals seem to understand. Second, there are many ways to win an election. Third, even if the interstate compact could reduce bad legislation, the No Child Left Behind Act began as a prime example, drafted to appeal to Volvo-driving soccer moms in Hamilton County, Ohio; it’s still not good enough reason to blow up the whole system. Florida is redder than ever despite a mass influx of Puerto Ricans who lean heavily Democrat. Demography isn’t destiny. We’re a system based on public opinion, which is shiftable sand. What could look like Armageddon one year for a particular party can flip on a dime. In 2009, the official start of the Obama years, we were subjected to essays about the end of conservatism. The 2010 midterms ushered in the Tea Party wave.
The Electoral College ensures that the candidate with better geographic diversity wins. Sometimes, candidates like Richard Nixon in 1960 win more states than the other candidate and still lose the presidency. In five elections, candidates have won the presidency by clinching 270+ electoral votes but lost the popular vote. It happens, and we’re still here, aren’t we?