Frank Luntz is worried: the 2026 polls seem off. He isn’t confident they’re gauging the climate accurately, and they might not even be reaching the right participants. On CNN, the longtime pollster admitted he was wrong about 2016. He realized that GOP voters and MAGA supporters don’t respond to polls and don’t give much concerning exit polling on Election Day. He missed Trump voters that cycle and feels it could be happening again.
The margin for this cycle is slim. If polls underestimate the GOP vote by 2-3 points, which isn’t a wild projection, the GOP retains control of Congress. With turnout, Luntz added that there are three questions that are not being asked:
💥Frank Luntz *DUMPS COLD WATER* on CNN viewers' dreams of blue wave💥 Luntz warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls. He admitted he "got 2016 wrong" because he trusted the exit polls. Luntz asserted he is "skeptical" the current polling is accurate. Moreover, he cast doubt on whether pollsters are using the right measurements and asking the proper questions to determine turnout. Luntz has been a renowned pollster for decades, so this is meaningful coming from him. He knows firsthand how polling can miss Trump voters. Since there are many close races, underestimating Republican turnout by a small margin could make all the difference. It sounds like there’s a real chance of that happening.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 18, 2026
- How interested are you in the election?
- How often do you collect election news, political news?
- How often do you talk politics to your friends and neighbors?
Those three questions are essential to properly determining voter turnout.
Luntz is the focus-group guru. He can tell who will vote on Election Day by reading body language during one-on-one interviews when he conducts his polls. Those who aren’t going to vote look, act, and sound disengaged, yet they’re counted in the polls Democrats tout to show an incoming blue wave.
He’s not so sure.