JD Vance may be reconsidering a presidential run in 2028. 

According to CNN, the vice president is weighing whether to enter the race after Republicans’ brutal midterm losses last week. The roughly dozen allies and advisers CNN spoke with said a run remains more likely than not and that Vance is committed to rebuilding the MAGA movement that won in 2024. But as of now, he is uncertain whether he should be the one to lead it.

Vance has several factors to weigh, from family responsibilities following the arrival of his fourth child to doubts about Republicans’ chances in the current political climate. Known for his more isolationist foreign policy views, he threw the Trump administration’s war in Iran under the bus just a day after Republicans lost control of Congress. 

How closely voters will associate him with the war, and whether he can rebuild the coalition that delivered victory in 2024, remain open questions. 

One close ally told CNN, “The question isn’t if JD can do it. It’s: If the Iran war is still happening, can any Republican do it? If they don’t end the war in Iran, no Republican has a shot at 2028.” 

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Since last week, conservatives have split into several factions over what drove Republicans’ midterm losses. While the most likely explanation involves several factors, more isolationist Republicans have sought to pin the defeat entirely on President Trump’s failure to keep his promise of “no new wars.” That argument lets them blame the supposed remaining vestiges of neoconservatism while insulating the rest of the New Right’s agenda from scrutiny.

The debate remains far from settled as more data continues to emerge, but Vice President Vance made it quickly known where he stands on the issue. 

CNN also reported that Trump was privately furious over Vance’s X post last week and his refusal to defend the War’s necessity. The president has since shifted Vance away from foreign policy. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump announced that he had directed the Vice President to focus more on rooting out fraud within the United States, a move widely interpreted as sidelining Vance over doubts about his willingness to carry out the president’s foreign policy agenda.

Last week’s results upended Republican expectations for 2028. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have quickly emerged as favorites to succeed Trump. But while Vance reconsiders a run, Rubio has also grown frustrated with speculation about his own ambitions, snapping at reporters who continue to ask. DeSantis, meanwhile, appears to be embracing the moment. 

For now, Republicans’ prospects in 2028 look bleak. If Texas in particular stays blue through the next two years, their path to the White House will be especially difficult.