Iran's brutal theocracy under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows signs of a failing and flailing dictatorship in its dying days. His crackdown on the resistance will not hold. The question is, when the end comes, what’s next? What kind of government will lead Iran beyond its bitter past toward a better future for the country, the region, and the world?
The once-wealthy Iranian economy, powered by petroleum, is faltering. Iranians lack food and fuel while Khamenei's mullahs and their families live like royalty. Iran is isolated with its terror networks, regional alliances, nuclear ambitions, and influence shattered. Its brutal crackdown on public protests, which worsened daily with ever-more violent suppression, mass arrests and killings, only inflamed the resistance.
For now, the suppression has slowed the protests under pressure. But nationwide opposition by all groups boils below the surface. The regime is panicked. Since the uprising began, it shut down the internet, killed at least 3,900 protestors, and President Trump, standing firmly with the resistance, is mulling responses and calling for new leadership. The mullahs are cornered.
After eight years of growing labor strikes, student protests, and localized uprisings, and thousands arrested, tortured, or executed, the resistance is coming to a head. Iranians demand more than lower prices and reform. They want regime change, an end to tyranny, cruelty, and abuses of clerical rule and Sharia law, and a free, just, and safe democratic republic.
When, if, and how the Ayatollah regime might end are uncertain. What’s clear is that the Iranian people are sick of 100 years of autocracy that began with the Pahlavi dynasty in 1925 under Reza Shah Pahlavi.
Current generations will never forget nor want to repeat when Iranians risked their lives nearly 50 years ago to overthrow the last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and his Imperial State of Iran. They did so only to fall under another brutal and kleptocratic dictatorship as the Ayatollahs stripped away basic human rights and freedoms, and ruled through fear and force, much like the Shah’s government did. Iranian protesters want a clean break from the past.
So, it’s disturbing that the Shah's oldest son, the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, has emerged as a figure of resistance. He describes himself as “a leader of the Iranian democratic opposition” and “a unifying figure to help guide a transition away from tyranny and toward a democratic future chosen by the people themselves.”
The resistance is wary. In some protests, chants ring out, “Neither Pahlavi nor the supreme leader; freedom and equality.” The last thing they want is to replace one monarch with another. While some might welcome Pahlavi’s support for the protests, many question it, and few believe he’s the one person who can lead Iran toward democracy. His presence in the debate evokes the old French royal-succession cry, “The king is dead, long live the king!”
A major concern is that Pahlavi will promote Persian nationalism, which has historically shaped and divided Iran, a culturally diverse country. He reportedly failed to lead or inspire non-Persian groups during the 2022 uprising there. Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has cited reports linking Pahlavi’s supporters to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Claims are circulating that a covert Israeli influence operation aims to install Pahlavi as the new Shah of Iran.
Many worry that Pahlavi is trying to step into a post-revolutionary power vacuum, just as Ayatollah Khomeini did in 1979. He promises to unite the opposition, but instead is dominating it and eventually may suppress the very freedoms Iranians are fighting and dying for. In so many ways, he is the wrong man to make Iran great again.
A few Iranians still favor a shah-like monarchy. But the vast majority, like most of the world, rejects kingly rule as outdated and wholly unable to address the needs of modern society in Iran or anywhere. Monarchist voices in Iran and throughout the diaspora lack widespread support and legitimacy. They have not formed alliances; they are dividing rather than uniting the opposition. Nostalgia for the royal family's birthright rule is oddly divorced from the current reality and the greater potential of Iranian life.
While the old regime is dying and a new Iran waits to be born, the question is who can lead the nation to the freedom that the resistance is fighting for. Instead of being doomed to repeat history, they seek a government of, by, and for the people. Not authoritarian rulers who dominate and serve only themselves. This vision benefits not only Iran but also peace, stability, and prosperity in the region and beyond.