It is amazing to watch Democrats in complete and utter denial that they are going to lose the House, and likely the Senate, in the upcoming midterm election. It appears that some have convinced themselves that they still have a chance to save their majority this fall if they just double down on Wokeness. It is amazing and fun to watch.
One thing that Democrats, and Republicans for that matter, can’t avoid is history. The history of midterms dictates that the party in power loses seats in the first midterm election of a new president. The American Presidency Project compiled data on past presidents’ approval numbers versus how many seats were lost in the House and Senate. The results indicate doom for the party of Joe Biden.
President Donald J. Trump had an early August 2018 approval number of 41% and that low number ended up leading to a loss of 40 seats in the House while picking up 2 seats in the Senate. President Barack Obama was in a similar boat with his 2010 midterms at 44% approval leading to a loss of a staggering 63 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. President George W. Bush was an outlier because he had 66% approval rating in the wake of his response to 9/11 in 2002 which resulted in a pickup of 8 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate. President Bill Clinton was at 43% and his party took a beating in his 1994 midterms with a loss of 52 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate. History speaks to big losses for Congressional Democrats this fall.
The first midterm for a new president is usually a correction election with many newly elected members of the party in power serving only one term. Using the Clinton to Trump metrics, the first midterm for a new president results in an average of a 36-seat loss in the House and a 2-3 seat loss in the Senate for the party in power. Even if President Joe Biden was relatively popular, his party would be in trouble. Add in terrible poll numbers and the prognosis looks even better for Republicans.
The poll numbers for Biden are dismal and reflect both his poor performance and the lack of support for a Woke agenda. According to Real Clear Politics, Biden is averaging a 41% approval rating and 54% disapproval. Biden’s numbers have been in a tailspin since the middle of last year and buyer’s remorse is setting in for voters. If you use historical trends as a starting point, Biden could provide his party with a massive 40+ seat loss in the House and enough losses in the Senate to hand over control to Republicans in both chambers. It is clear that one aspect of Biden’s unpopularity is the perception that he can’t seem to get through even one speech looking lost.
The policies being pushed by the left-wing of the Democratic Party are not helping. No average voter wants to defund the police nor push Critical Race Theory on the children of unwilling parents. The Biden mandates are still haunting his party. Furthermore, it seems like the Democrats have overplayed their hand in putting so much focus on a 1/6 Commission that most Americans have tuned out.
It seems that some leaders of the Democratic Party think the party can save their majority if they get even more Woke. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) wrote an Op-Ed for the New York Times where she argued, “if we fail to use the months remaining before the elections to deliver on more of our agenda, Democrats are headed toward big losses in the midterms.” She mentions tax hikes, “vital investments in combating climate change” and abolishing the filibuster. Sen. Warren seems to believe that the urgent issues that voters care about are “climate change, income inequality, systemic injustice.” The woke is very strong in this member of the Senate and she might believe that what sells in liberal Massachusetts is a good agenda for Alabama or Montana.
Right now, all eyes are on Ukraine while Americans are concerned about the economy. Tesla drivers in Massachusetts may be crying in their lattes about climate change, but most Americans are mad as hell about high gas prices and out-of-control inflation. Democrats are not leading with the issues Americans care about. They would rather issue a subpoena to continue an investigation into January 6th than to write up legislation to audit the Federal Reserve as a means to get inflation under control. Americans are more concerned about running out of gas and the cash to keep their homes air-conditioned in the upcoming summer.
Democrats are too Woke and they have done nothing to mitigate historical trends that already had them losing the House and Senate. Next time you hear some pundit on MSNBC or CNN claiming that Democrats can turn this around if they just pass even more big government legislation – have a good laugh.