| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of December 22 | |||
| December 22 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Existing Home Sales - November | 5.220M | 5.260 | 5.20 |
| December 23 | |||
| Durable Goods Sales - November | 2.0% | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| GDP - Q3 (f) | 4.2% | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Personal Income - November | 0.6% | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Personal Spending | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| PCE Price Index | -0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| FHFA Housing Price Index- Oct | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r) | 93.8 | 93.8 | 93.0 |
| New Home Sales - November | 458K | 458 | 460 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| December 24 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 300 | 299 | 290 |
| Week of December 29 | |||
| December 29 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.5 | 10.5 | |
| December 30 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - October | |||
| Twenty City M/M | -0.6% | 0.0 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 4.1 | 4.9 | |
| Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA | |||
| Consumer Confidence | 93.5 | 88.7 | 93.0 |
| December 31 | |||
| Chicago PMI | 60.8 | 60.8 | 60.6 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - November | 104.1 | 104.1 | 105.1 |
| January 2 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - December | 54.0 | 53.7 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - December | 57.5 | 58.7 | 57.9 |
| ISM Prices | 43.5 | 44.5 | 43.0 |
| Construction Spending - November | 0.0% | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Week of January 5 | |||
| January 5 | |||
| Auto Sales* - December | 17.04M | 17.20 | 16.9 |
| Car Sales | 8.01 | 8.18 | |
| Truck Sales | 9.03 | 9.03 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| January 6 | |||
| ISM Services - December | 57.8 | 59.3 | 58.0 |
| ISM Prices | 54.0 | 54.5 | |
| ISM Business Activity | |||
| Factory Orders - November | 0.4% | -0.7 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 2.0 | 0.3 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | -1.5 | ||
| January 7 | |||
| ADP Employment - December | 205K | 208 | 240 |
| International Trade - November | -$41.0B | 43.4 | -42.0 |
| January 8 | |||
| Consumer Credit - November | $14.8B | 13.2 | 15.0 |
| January 9 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - December | 215K | 321 | 243 |
| Private | 205 | 314 | 240 |
| Manufacturing | 5 | 28 | |
| Unemployment | 5.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Average Workweek | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 34.5HR | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| Wholesale Inventories - November | 0.2% | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | |||
Forecasts for the Weeks of December 22 and January 5
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