We got all the lines
And all the rhymes
We don't drop dimes
And we don't do crimes
We bake a little cake with Duncan Hines
And never wear the vest they call the Calvin Klein's
Cause Calvin Klein's no friend of mine
Don't want nobody's name on my behind
Lee on my legs, sneakers on my feet
D by my side and Jay with the beat
—Run-DMC
It was another tough session for the market as buyers have decided to cool their heels and refuse to take the early rally bait. There wasn't much news but the longer the market drifts, the more time for some to realize the Dow made a 9,000 point rally and maybe it's due for a pullback of sorts. There's no doubt market bias has shifted but it's a pullback still in search of a trigger. There's an old saying about never shorting a dull market but I'm not sure what axiom or colloquialism covers a market that wants to pull back. In the meantime while the market has just suffered (for lack of a better word) its first three-day losing streak not much has changed with respect to fundamentals.
At this point considering a lack of news and growing angst, charts and other indicators will play an enhanced role. You'll hear more and more about the VIX or so-called fear gauge. By measuring and comparing put and call action the index is famed for its ability to predict the market over the next 30 days. It's not something I use often because it's like needing a weatherperson to tell me it's raining after I've walked inside dripping in water. I know very smart people, however, that trade solely on the VIX Index. I started to pay attention not because I'm convinced of its magical powers but because when big money starts to react to the index I just want to see what the fuss is all about.
There have been times since the meltdown of 2008-2009 the VIX corresponded with either big pullbacks or big lulls in the action.
August 18, 2008 to August 25, 2008
VIX starts moving from 18.81 to 20.65 then on October 20 it reaches 79.0
During period the Dow declines from 11,628 to 8,378
April 19, 2010 to April 26, 2010
VIX moves from 16.62 to 22.05 by May 3 reaches 40.95
During period the Dow slips from 11,204 to
July 18, 2011 to July 25, 2011
VIX takes off from 17.52 to 25.25
During period the Dow drops from 12,681 to 10,817
Right now the VIX is still tumbling around in a very tight range but moving higher. Let's see if it hits 22 how the market is reacting. But I will say I think the VIX reflects the market, it doesn't make the market, although any gauge can have influence when everyone is watching.
Then There's Real World
In 1881 Moses Phillips and wife Endel begin sewing shirts and selling them to local miners in Pottsville Pennsylvania. In 1919 Van Heusen is granted a patent for the soft-folding collar. The company eventually becomes PVH and reported their most recent earnings results after the close last night. Earnings of $1.91 crushed consensus of $1.35 as newly acquired Warnaco has made a big splash. While Run-DMC wrote off the brand a long time ago people are still buying Calvin Klein's which coupled with Tommy Hilfiger drove another impressive quarter.
The stock will be up huge this morning but may not have an impact on the wider market. Be that as it may, each week there are several reminders that the key to investing is finding great American companies... especially with roots to 1880s coal miners.