The polling has been awful this year. It’s been a degrading industry since 2012, but any firm will toss out something to conform to your confirmation bias if you pay them. There are many ways to skin the electoral cat. The same principle applies to polling. Case in point: Ann Selzer claimed, weeks before Election Day 2024, that Kamala Harris was up three points in Iowa. Everyone knew that was bunk. That’s a 20+ point swing that Ann missed. Please. Trump was going to win Iowa, and he did handily. Yet, it sure got Democrats excited over nothing.
Is the GOP brand toxic? I mean, the polling for Trump and Republicans could be better, but there’s no mass exodus. Trump has never been more popular with the GOP base. MAGA is also juiced to vote this midterm cycle, but the psyops and suppression polls are rolling. Ignore them. I thought something more grounded would roll out by now, but no. Mute the polls, focus on your campaign, Republicans. Stop whining and fight. And of all people, it is CNN’s Harry Enten whose throwing cold water on the Democrats’ blue tsunami talk, notably because Republican voter registration in some key battleground states in 2024 all expanded this year. Democrats did not.
Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years. In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA). The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4. https://t.co/KXK7zc5dFY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2026
Democrats are LOSING the voter registration war in every key battleground. As political pros will tell you, these numbers are much more important than public polls. https://t.co/6d3dmg1hIp
— L A R R Y (@LarryOConnor) October 7, 2026
Larry spoke at length about how the polls don’t make sense.
Onward, folks. Don’t fall for the games.