We’ve still got the midterms to get through, so maybe it’s too early to talk about the 2028 presidential primary, but then again, why not? After all, the second that 2026 is decided, the 2028 cycle begins. It’s inevitable. Heck, it’s already happening. You can see politicians jostling for position, lofting trial balloons, and generally demonstrating how they are utterly overcome by delusion.
Here’s the fact: the nominee is going to be JD Vance unless either JD Vance or Donald Trump decides it’s not going to be JD Vance.
No debate. There’s no actual contest. That’s how it’s going to work out. That’s the only way it can work out. Anybody telling you anything else is wrong. They may be wrong because they’re crazy. They may be wrong because they’re dumb. They may be wrong because they’re delusional. Maybe they’re wrong and know they’re wrong but are saying it anyway because they think it’s to their advantage. But the truth is indisputable. Donald Trump is going to pick the next Republican nominee, and right now it’s JD Vance.
Now, of course, JD Vance might decide not to do it. He’s got a young and growing family, and his wife might not want to put up with this insanity. She might not want to live with a husband who is in the sights of every leftist sociopath out there with a gun and a grudge. They want to murder us, which we can tell by the fact that they have murdered us in the past and would’ve had a higher body count if they could shoot straight.
Alternatively, JD Vance might not think that 2028 is a great opportunity for Republicans. He’s young, and he’ll have many chances down the road, potentially. There’s always the chance that 2028 is his peak, and that somebody else will come along to grab the spotlight, but he might want to take a bye if things aren’t looking great and the administration is unpopular. But the thing is that things probably will look great.
Oh, if the Democrats take one or both houses of Congress, that’s going to be a mess, but that’s not going to reflect on Trump. That’s going to reflect on the Democrats. You’ll have a ravenous, roiling cauldron of left-wing insanity, weirdness, and perversion going on every single day, which will serve to remind people of what the alternative to sober, successful Republican rule is. In 2026, they’re doing everything they can not to remind people what they will do once they get power again. They won’t be able to hide it once they have a little; they’ve already promised to do nothing but investigate political enemies and try to impeach Trump. After the third, fourth, or even fifth impeachment, people are going to get a little tired of that nonsense. Political onanism only goes so far.
But the bigger problem for the Democrats is that Trump’s economy is going to start kicking in over the next year. The new golden age got delayed by trouble with the Fed and with the Iran war, but the economy is fundamentally sound and improving. Things are going to start rocking. We’ve seen this before, those of us who aren’t 12. Remember 1982? The great Ronald Reagan got crushed in the 1982 midterms because his economic policies hadn’t kicked in yet. But by 1984, they had, and it was morning in America, buddy. Reagan won every state except Minnesota, and the way Minnesota is going, that might be up for grabs in 2028, too.
Also, the Iran war is going to be finished by 2028, while Cuba’s going to be free; communists will be swinging from the lampposts — that’s Marco Rubio’s consolation prize for skipping the 2028 cycle. The problem for the Democrats is all they can do is stop legislation and complain. Trump’s going to get the credit for the economy, and the Democrats will have a track record of opposing everything that led to the golden age. And that means the next Republicans are going to have a solid opportunity in 2028, particularly if the Democrats nominate Kamala Harris, and what are the chances of them picking a creepy white sociopath like Gavin Newsom over a black communist woman?
I don’t think JD will let this opportunity go, and unless he gets in a big fight with Donald Trump — always a possibility — Donald Trump will anoint him, and most everyone in the GOP will fall in line.
But what about the guys who won’t? What about the guys who, despite JD's inevitability, throw their hat in the ring?
There would be two main kinds of competing primary opponents, the bitter and the delusional. Start with the bitter. These are the guys who’ve been rejected. These are the guys who’ve presented themselves to Republican voters and been soundly rejected. They’re terrible. They just don’t fit where we are, and it makes them mad that the peasants are revolting. How dare the proles not recognize their manifest superiority and entitlement to greater glory!
There are a bunch of these malcontents out there. I’m sure we’ll see Mike Pence give it another whirl; he’s the party guest who doesn’t know when to leave, except he doesn’t drink, so he didn’t even provide the entertainment that a drunk would. How about Don Bacon, that guy from Nebraska? He was an Air Force general, which says everything you need to know; rarely do you meet anyone else who is simultaneously so pleased with himself and so bereft of any reason to be a general officer jumping into politics. He’s pretty sure that the GOP needs amnesty and submission, but no one’s biting at that bait. That’s why he didn’t bother running again in his blue-leaning district; it wasn’t the Democrat votes he was worried about earning.
And then there are guys like Thomas Massie, the herpes of American politics — he’s gross and never goes away. He does speak for a constituency, though, the geniuses who are convinced there’s a giant Epstein conspiracy out there somewhere that Tommyboy will someday disclose — someday—and who also blame Jews for their inability to satisfy a woman. They are the perfect demographic for a cynical demagogue who does the impossible and makes libertarians look even more ridiculous.
Then there’s the delusional crew. These are good guys. They’ve come through for us in the past. They’d make good presidents. They’re just not going to make good presidents starting in January 2029, unless JD bows out for some reason, and Marco Rubio then bows out for some reason. That’s a lot of bowing, and it’s just not going to happen. I mean, it could happen. And they might come riding to the inauguration in a glittering silver carriage pulled by unicorns.
JD Vance is already taking some swipes at Ted Cruz and vice versa. I think Ted Cruz is a huge asset to the Republican Party. I did something for Ted Cruz that a guy like me — significantly Scottish — rarely does and gave him money the last time he ran for president, so I am speaking as a supporter. What I have to say as a supporter is this: Ted, buddy, you have zero chance of winning the nomination, so don’t waste our time and your dignity trying to win it in 2028. I know that Ted Cruz really, really wants to be president, and I think he’d make a good president, but over the next couple of cycles, a Ted Cruz presidency is the American political equivalent of “fetch.” It just ain’t going to happen.
John Kennedy is the senator from Louisiana who specializes in cornpone country-fried aphorisms and the surgical cross-examination of witnesses at committee hearings. Far from being some backward rube, this guy was a sensational trial lawyer (I read and appreciated his Louisiana Law Review pieces on products liability) and has made noises like he might give it a shot. OK, I like the guy. He’s doing a good job when he’s not going on weird, Trump-targeted tangents like pushing to outlaw naming buildings after living people five weeks before the midterms, but he doesn’t need to be president in 2028. Maybe somebody told him he’d have a shot, but he’s smart enough not to listen.
And there’s Brian Kemp from Georgia, who seems to think he’s got a shot. I don’t want to hear one damn thing about his presidential aspirations unless he delivers the governorship for Rick Jackson and the Senate seat for Mike Collins. And after that, I still don’t want to hear one damn thing about his presidential aspirations. He’s just not going to be president in 2028, and probably not ever.
Other good guys who get mentioned are Doug Burgum, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, and several others. Again, all good guys. They all would make a terrific chief executive. But none of them is going to make a terrific chief executive next cycle. They should focus on doing the jobs that they’re doing. They can try again down the road.
With the emphasis on “down the road.” See, there’s a big roadblock in front of 2028. It’s Donald Trump, and he’s directing traffic on that figurative road. Right now, the only guy who’s driving through the barrier is JD Vance. You might not like it. You might not dig it. But that’s the way it is. And the sooner we all get that through our heads, the sooner we can start focusing on winning in 2028 — after we win in 2026, of course.
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