Let’s be clear: Two wars are impacting the price of gasoline, particularly the cost of diesel. Yet, it seems only one of them is permitted in polite conversation.
Ask a Democrat in Washington why a gallon costs $6.44, and the answer arrives in one word: Iran. But as the old saying goes, “A half-truth is still a whole lie.”
Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked invasion and it has earned and deserves the world's sympathy. Sympathy is free. Diesel isn't.
A year ago, diesel was an ordinary line item. Now, every American knows it’s a lot more, as AAA says the national average hit an all-time high last week. No one is happy about it, but everyone also deserves the whole truth.
Conflict With Iran Has a Price Tag
Start with the concession. Roughly a tenth of the world's waterborne diesel moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and when that traffic stalls, prices climb. The Iran war is part of the bill, because fighting a real existential crisis also isn’t free. However, the same standard applies everywhere else.
The Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine Costs More
Ukraine's drones have been hitting Russian refineries, a legitimate tactic for a country fighting for its life. The International Energy Agency says a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days in the first eight months of this year. Russian refinery throughput is at its lowest in more than two decades, and diesel output is down nearly 30 percent.
In July, Moscow banned diesel exports for the first time ever, from a country that once shipped about half its diesel and gasoil abroad. By August, combined Middle East and Russian diesel exports were 75 percent below a year earlier.
President Zelensky says his forces have knocked out 45 percent of Russia's refining capacity. Petroleum analysts who track pump prices estimate that 60 to 65 percent of the recent diesel spike traces back to those strikes. Iran and Hormuz account for the rest.
President Trump has asked Kyiv to ease off diesel targets, because he sees the connection. It’s the Democrats who are working full time to peddle half-truths.
They Signed the Check
Democrats were never confused about what pressuring Russian energy would cost.
In 2022, Sen. Chris Murphy said he would "absolutely support cutting off Russian oil to the United States." He acknowledged prices would rise, then said he'd prefer wind power fill the gap. Because nothing screams “I understand energy” more than a senator believing semi-trucks run on the breeze.
In 2023, he told a Senate hearing that collapsing Russian oil revenue was "maybe the primary factor" that could push Moscow to the table. This August, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer praised sanctions that "drain the Kremlin's war chest."
Draining that war chest was the goal. The refinery strikes are draining it. It was always going to cost Americans money, and they know it.
Now Watch Them Duck It
Ask those same leaders why diesel is $6.44, and the answer shrinks to a single war.
Schumer says the way to lower prices is to "end the damn war." Sen. Peter Welch says Trump is "all smoke and mirrors" and needs to end his war in Iran.
Iran, Iran, Iran. Not one word about the refineries burning in Russia, or the diesel that used to leave them.
When the cost was theoretical, it was a price worth paying. When a farmer's harvest bill lands, it's suddenly someone else's fault.
Campaigning on draining Russia's revenue and then blaming President Trump for the invoice is a bald-faced lie. The invoice has a return address.
Make Your Case
Maybe draining Russia's revenue is worth $6.44 diesel. Plenty of Americans in both parties might agree, and it's a fair argument. Make that case to the trucker, the farmer at harvest, and the family watching grocery prices climb.
But war has an impact on prices, and every war counts. Pointing at just one doesn't change the total.
There's a harder truth underneath all of this. America is on track to pump more oil this year than in any year in history, and it still can't turn enough of it into diesel. The refineries are running flat out.
That didn't happen by accident. A major new refinery hasn't been built here in decades. No surprise that many of the same Democrat leaders now blaming everything on Iran spent their careers in Washington fighting new refining capacity, along with the permits and pipelines that go with it.
So, when a shortage overseas lands at an American truck stop, the fair question is who made it impossible to refine more at home. Pointing at Iran is convenient. Pointing only at Iran, while standing in the way of the one thing that would soften the blow, is something else.
And that’s the whole truth.
Larry Behrens is an energy expert and the Communications Director for Power The Future. He’s been featured on Fox News, the Washington Times, and Townhall. You can follow him on X/Twitter @larrybehrens.