After almost seven months of war, economic strangulation, and mounting isolation, the Iranian regime is searching desperately for an escape route. Astonishingly, America may be preparing to provide one. Negotiators gathered in New York are discussing a phased agreement under which Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Washington would lift its economic blockade. Iran could also gain access to frozen assets. It would be a monumental strategic error. The clerical regime has rarely been weaker. This is precisely the moment when maximum pressure should be intensified, rather than exchanged for another temporary arrangement that allows the mullahs to regroup, replenish their finances, and prepare for their next confrontation.
The effectiveness of the pressure campaign is becoming increasingly obvious. The United Arab Emirates has suspended flights operated by Iranian airlines following sweeping American sanctions against Iran’s aviation sector. Iranian services to other regional destinations, such as the holy city of Najaf in neighboring Iraq, have also been disrupted. Washington has warned airports, fuel suppliers, ticket agents, and service companies that assisting sanctioned Iranian carriers could cost them access to the dollar system. At sea, the pressure is even greater. Iran’s oil exports have been squeezed by the American blockade, depriving the regime of desperately needed hard currency. Reuters reports that Tehran has now indicated that it could reopen Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure and lifts the blockade.
That offer tells us something important. The pressure is working. Iranian officials have spent decades boasting about resistance to Western sanctions. Yet today they are sitting in New York searching for economic relief. Why give it to them? The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway through which much of the world’s energy supplies must pass. Freedom of navigation should never become a commodity that Tehran can seize and then sell back to the international community. Allowing the regime to close Hormuz, inflict enormous economic damage, and then receive sanctions relief for reopening it would establish a disastrous precedent. It would teach Tehran that aggression pays.
The Gulf states understand the danger. They have rejected Iranian demands for control over navigation and have insisted that freedom of passage must be restored. Reuters reports that Iran may now be prepared to defer its demand for transit fees because ending the American blockade has become the more urgent objective. Again, the conclusion is obvious. Tehran is hurting. For years, the international community repeatedly rescued the Islamic Republic when pressure became unbearable. Negotiations produced concessions. Sanctions were relaxed. Frozen funds became accessible. The regime received breathing space. Then the machinery of repression and regional aggression resumed. This time Washington should learn from history. President Donald Trump has called for the complete economic isolation of Iran. He should pursue that strategy with determination. The objective should extend far beyond reopening Hormuz. The objective should be a durable settlement in which freedom of navigation can never again be held hostage by Tehran and in which Iran ceases to threaten its neighbors and destabilize the wider Middle East.
Ultimately, the future government of Iran must be decided by the Iranian people themselves. For decades they have endured dictatorship, executions, imprisonment, censorship, and economic catastrophe. They have repeatedly taken to the streets demanding fundamental change. The democratic opposition argues that Iran can become a secular republic based on popular sovereignty, gender equality, human rights, and peaceful relations with its neighbors. Those ideas should be allowed to compete freely before the Iranian people in democratic elections. Western governments should neither manufacture an alternative nor attempt to impose one. Their responsibility is different. They should deny the dictatorship the resources it uses to repress its people and export violence abroad. That means maintaining economic pressure. It means enforcing sanctions rigorously. It means targeting the financial networks that sustain the Revolutionary Guards. It means preventing sanctioned Iranian airlines, banks, shipping companies, and front organizations from operating internationally. It means refusing to reward the seizure of international waterways. Above all, it means resisting the temptation to rescue the regime when the consequences of its own policies finally become unbearable.
There is also a profound difference between negotiations that secure a lasting settlement and negotiations that merely postpone the next crisis. Iran previously reached an interim understanding with Washington. It collapsed within weeks. Reuters reports that this failure now hangs over the New York discussions, with both sides questioning whether concessions would endure. Why repeat the experiment? The mullahs understand leverage perfectly. Hormuz has become their bargaining chip because they believe Western governments fear high oil prices more than Tehran fears economic collapse. That calculation must be reversed. The message from Washington should be unequivocal. Freedom of navigation is an international right, rather than a favor granted by the Islamic Republic. Reopening Hormuz should therefore be the beginning of compliance, rather than the price for ending pressure.
Iran stands at a historic crossroads. Its rulers can see their economic lifelines disappearing. Their airlines are being squeezed from foreign airports. Their oil revenues are under extraordinary pressure. Their regional strategy has brought conflict and isolation. Their people continue to pay an appalling price for decades of clerical dictatorship. This is the worst possible moment to throw the regime a lifeline. America and its allies should maintain pressure while supporting the Iranian people’s right to determine their own democratic future. The goal should never be another temporary deal that keeps the mullahs afloat. The goal should be a free Iran, a permanently open Strait of Hormuz, and a Middle East finally released from the malign influence of the Islamic Republic.
Struan Stevenson was a member of the European Parliament representing Scotland (1999-2014), president of the Parliament's Delegation for Relations with Iraq (2009-14), and chairman of the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup (2004-14). He is an author and international lecturer on the Middle East.