Every poll has North Carolina as a GOP bloodbath in November. Is it shocking? Not really—former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is historically popular and has won handily statewide in his past elections. He’s running to fill the vacancy that will come from Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) departure from public life. Republican Michael Whatley has a name-recognition issue, but it can be fixed. He’s already tried that with a 100-county tour. He needed cash, and now the GOP is bombarding the state.

Over the summer, Whatley trailed by only four points in a Public Policy Polling survey, a Democratic poll. Yet Cooper has pulled away. What he said recently doesn’t bode well for Democrats hoping for an easy win here. In fact, his remarks seem to admit that the current polling is outright crap. Cooper said he believes this race will be close, between one and three points, so that’s a pretty damning admission, given that he’s been peppered with polls showing double-digit blowouts:

And this doesn’t help: