There's been considerable attention surrounding the latest poll from The New York Times/Siena College, as Guy discussed earlier on Monday. With such a poll included, Vice President Kamala Harris currently leads former and potentially future President Donald Trump by just +1.2 at the national level, according to RealClearPolling. This isn't where Harris wants to be. Further, that poll is not the only one to come out in recent days.
Also on Sunday, the latest CBS News/YouGov poll was released, this one focusing on voters in key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania at 50 percent each with likely voters, while Harris leads Trump by +1 in Michigan (50-49 percent) and by +2 in Wisconsin (51-49 percent). Such leads are within the margin of error.
*NEW*
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 8, 2024
CBS News Poll: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin tight ahead of the debate
More think Harris has cognitive health to serve; inflation concerns bolster Trump https://t.co/FXeKau4yOm pic.twitter.com/WgwQdHz2zm
In discussing how close the race is, the write-up talks about the strengths for Harris and Trump, with Trump's particular strengths being with the economy and opportunities in that regard:
One one hand: Trump leads with voters who just don't think they're better off financially since the pandemic, whose incomes aren't keeping up with inflation and especially with non-college and White voters who say this.
The bulk of those White non-college voters, always a critical group in these states, say that opportunities for working-class people specifically would be better with Trump.
On the other hand, Harris holds her own in one sense. She's actually a little better than even with Trump on looking out for the interests of the middle class. Trump is also seen as much likelier to try to help the interests of the wealthy across states.
The poll's write-up highlights how in Michigan, likely voters who consider the economy to be a major factor in their vote, prefer Trump over Harris by 58-42 percent. He does even better among those who consider inflation to be a major factor in their vote, with a lead of 62-37 percent over Harris.
Eighty-one percent of likely voters consider the economy to be a "major factor," while 75 percent say the same about inflation, making it the two top issues.
Trump leads among voters who say inflation is a major factor and those who don't think they're better off financially since the pandemic. pic.twitter.com/34fW80LFWf
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 8, 2024
Polls at the state and national level have consistently shown those to be top issues for voters, and ones where Trump has the edge.
In Pennsylvania, 82 percent say the economy is a "major factor," while 78 percent say so about "inflation." Similarly, in Wisconsin, 82 percent also say that the economy is a "major factor," while 76 percent say so about inflation.
CBS News Elections & Surveys Director Anthony Salvanto also posted about white non-college voters in Pennsylvania and their views on "economic opportunities for working class people" and whether they will get better, worse, or stay the same. He notes that they're "always a critical voting bloc."
If Harris wins, close to a majority, at 49 percent, believe that those opportunities will "get worse." Just 27 percent believe that they will "get better," while 23 percent believe they will "stay the same." Meanwhile, a majority, at 53 percent, believe that such opportunities will "get better." Thirty-two percent believe those opportunities will get worse, and just 15 percent believe they'll "stay the same."
The bulk of White non-college voters in these states (always a critical voting bloc) feel opportunities for the working-class would be better with Trump... pic.twitter.com/Cmz62eDMqu
— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) September 8, 2024
It's worth highlighting, though, that the lead for Harris in these areas is very slight in compared to the trust voters have in Trump. Being "a little better than even with Trump" isn't all that impressive.
The poll was conducted September 3-6 with 1,086 registered voters in Michigan for which there was a margin of error (MOE) of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, 1,085 registered voters for which there was a MOE of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and 958 registered voters in Wisconsin, for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll's findings are included in the RCP averages for those states. Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, while she leads by +1.2 in Michigan and by +1.5 in Wisconsin.
These states are the battlegrounds that repeatedly find themselves back in the polls and in the news. Beyond how Pennsylvania is a must-state win, we covered in Friday's VIP how there's chatter that the Harris team is bummed that they didn't go with Gov. Josh Shapiro as the running mate, the commonwealth's popular governor.
Hearing lots of rumbling today that Harris camp regretting not picking Shapiro. https://t.co/b45oLCt60l
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 5, 2024
CNN's Harry Enten raised that issue about Pennsylvania earlier on Monday, as Bonchie at our sister site of RedState also covered.
Enten especially focused on how the race in Pennsylvania is tied, while Harris once led there against Trump. "And this, to me, is part of an emerging pattern, which is in a very pivotal state. What we saw was a small Harris lead, but within the margin of error, becoming a race that is way, way, way too close to call it this particular point one that is even," he offered.
It's especially "pivotal," he explained, when it comes to the Electoral College and the commonwealth's 19 electoral votes.
Enten also highlighted Shapiro's 59 percent approval rating in Pennsylvania.
"And the bottom line is, If Kamala Harris loses in the State of Pennsylvania, and that is the tipping point state... the state that put Donald Trump over the top in the Electoral College, there are going to be some real questions as to whether Kamala Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro, given how popular he is in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania," Enten shared.
"Could she have been a winner if she had chosen him instead of Tim Walz? We don't know the answer to that question. We don't know who's going to win the State of Pennsylvania, but it's certainly a question that, at this particular moment, with the Pennsylvania polls getting tighter and tighter and tighter, that I'm certainly asking," he continued. And he's not the only one.
The polls have clearly tightened in Pennsylvania from a month ago... Going from a small Harris lead to even... And it's the most likely state to determine the winner.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 9, 2024
A big question is what the PA polls would look like if Harris had chosen the very popular Gov. Shapiro as VP? pic.twitter.com/hiGISyPdzR
A particularly popular article for The Hill on Monday includes their article on the situation, "Harris missed ‘big opportunity’ by not picking Shapiro as running mate: Nate Silver."
The Hill has focused on other polling news for Harris on Sunday and Monday as well, with headlines such as how "Harris falling behind among male voters in key states," "New poll delivers warning signals to Harris," about the poll from The New York Times/Siena College, as well as an opinion piece from Douglas Schoen about how "Harris is up but Trump might be stronger behind the polls."
