Ohio Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance wasn’t worried about the polls, even those showing his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, within striking distance. Both men were running to replace outgoing Sen. Ron Portman (R-OH).
During the GOP primaries, none of the candidates were terrible on paper, but maybe there were some presentational issues. At first glance, no one was particularly exciting, Vance emerged at the top, but questions arose about whether he could win, given his anti-Trump roots. Vance’s Twitter activity about the former president was rather explicit regarding his dislike of Mr. Trump, but that quickly became a non-issue. He ran a solid campaign and performed well in the debates against Ryan, leading a decisive seven-point win on Tuesday.
Vance’s win is another stinging reminder for Democrats about their losses in the Rust Belt among white rural working-class voters. The Buckeye State is now red since 2016—long gone are its roots as a swing state. Some observers wonder if Democrats could win here again, especially with a strong candidate like Tim Ryan. Florida and Iowa have also lost their swing status, so most viewed this contest as a lock for Vance regardless of the polling. As the Washington Free Beacon noted, Vance felt that Ryan never really had a chance:
Republican J.D. Vance says he never had a doubt that Ohio voters would eventually wake up to what is at stake in the upcoming Senate election.
After months of what appeared to be a neck-and-neck race with Democratic Senate nominee Tim Ryan, polls show Vance is finally breaking through with voters. But, Vance told the Washington Free Beacon in an interview, it’s not because his message changed.
The energy is higher as you get closer to Election Day, but I’ve always thought the idea this race was close was a bit of a mirage," Vance said on Saturday. "A lot of our base just wasn’t really paying attention to politics, they were on vacation or hanging out with their kids."
The most recent polls find Vance leading anywhere from 6 to as much as 9 points, a dramatic departure from what was considered a statistically tied race as recently as October. The polling lead makes Vance the most likely Republican in states considered a "battleground" to prevail on Tuesday.
Vance’s solid lead—he told the Free Beacon he now "loves the polls"—doesn’t come as a major surprise. Former president Donald Trump won the state twice by 8 points, and retiring Sen. Rob Portman’s seat has been occupied by a Republican since 1999. Even as Ryan performed well in summer polls, election prognosticators across the board always viewed Ohio as a likely Republican win, no matter what the polls said.
Tuesday night was a red mirage, as the Republican Party failed to inflict a massive blow against Joe Biden and the Democrats, but there was a blue mirage in Ohio if all you looked at was the polling. The lack of doomsday stories about Vance throughout the summer should’ve been a clue that the man never was in danger of losing this race.
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