Nevermind Hillary's Gender Gap, What Happened With Evangelicals?

Jonathan Garthwaite
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Posted: Jan 09, 2008 11:09 AM
The conventional wisdom was that Mike Huckabee couldn't do well in New Hampshire because evangelical voters only comprise a quarter of NH Republican voters (60% in Iowa) but exit poll results from Tuesday's election might suprise you.

Nathan Gonzales at the Rothenberg Political Report has the details.

In Iowa, 60% of GOP caucus goers were self-described born again or evangelical Christian. Huckabee won the group with a commanding 46%. Mitt Romney finished second (19%), Fred Thompson third (11%), and Sen. John McCain tied with Cong. Ron Paul at 10%.

But in New Hampshire, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney fought to essentially a three-way tie (28%, 28%, and 27% respectively) among evangelicals, who made up nearly a quarter of Granite State Republicans.

...

In Iowa, Huckabee won 56% of caucus goers who said that religious beliefs mattered a great deal to them (36% of the electorate). McCain, Romney, and Thompson all tied at 11%, a distant second. But in New Hampshire, McCain defeated Huckabee 34%-28% among voters who prioritized religious beliefs, although their share of the electorate was much smaller (14%) than in Iowa.

And among the one-third of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire who said they attended church weekly, McCain finished first with 32%, Romney second at 28%, and Huckabee third with 24%.

Also,

While McCain did well among evangelicals, he also easily won those who strongly supported civil unions in the state, adding even more complexity to the New Hampshire electorate.

You've sure have to love the way they do things in New Hampshire.