The Thing About Predictions

Jonathan Garthwaite
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Posted: Jan 03, 2008 7:43 PM
They're pointless.  There are just so many moving parts to these campaigns -- negative ads, polling accuracy, honesty of those being polled, under-the-radar dirty tricks, candidate gaffes, the list goes on and on.

My prediction of Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Thompson is a "milk money" prediction.   Anybody can make hopeful, my-favorite-candidate-will-win or long shot predictions with little consequence in the everybody-is-a-pundit media landscape.

I think Romney is a safer bet if you're betting the milk money on the results.   Huckabee may very well win -- and it sure would keep this primary season exciting -- but history says don't bet against the guy with the most cash and establishment support.