All politics is local? Or National?

Jonathan Garthwaite
Posted: Aug 02, 2007 8:20 AM
In this week's poll watcher piece, Townhall's national political reporter Amanda Carpenter gives us a rundown of the lastest polling results on the Democratic side. The difference between the local polling in early primary states and the overall national polling is striking.

Barack Obama has a slim advantage in two out of the four early primary states, but would get crushed on "Tsunami Tuesday" by Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for President, according to recent polls.

If the polls were to accurately play out, Clinton would then win Florida by 14% before taking three out of the four primary elections held on February 5 in California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. The closest of those elections would occur in Illinois, the state in which Clinton was born and that Obama represents in the Senate. A statewide July poll conducted by the American Research Group gave Obama a 5% advantage there.

Polls predict Clinton would then easily win California by 25%, New Jersey by 22% and New York by 34%.