Ohio, Florida, Colorado Tidbits

Guy Benson
Posted: Nov 06, 2012 5:02 PM

(1) It's looking like the Ohio polls overstated the state's early vote, which consistently favored Obama in the data.  This could be bad news for Obama:

The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.  

Many of the polls measured Ohio's turnout at 35 to 40 percent, with the president enjoying a massive lead.  This information might shift the paradigm vis-a-vis turnout, and thus votes. 

(2) Colorado numbers, from a GOP source:

Adams County (lean D county) – strong Republican turnout based on morning data – on track to win since first time [since] 1984. AB/EV margins will be hard for them to overcome today. Right now – it’s a virtual tie. E-day is 3696 D, 3549 R. 

Arapahoe (Swing County) – 4,860 Democrat & 5,271 Republican – Election Day so far. Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV –75,653 Democrat & 75,812 Republican.

Jefferson County (Swing) – 78,738 Democrat & 85,378 Republican for AB/EV. Waiting on Election Day.  

(3) In Florida, Jim Geraghty sees good early voting signs in several counties.

Turnout, turnout, turnout -- and turnout means you.

UPDATE - Drudge has posted a slew of very early exit data that is mostly bad news for Republicans.  Incomplete exits are infamously wrong, especially this early (remember the 2004 debacle), but *if* those numbers hold up, Obama looks like he's in decent shape.  Then again, we we hearing about "President Kerry" eight years ago.