The final public polls on the California Senate race – are they a trick or a treat? Believe the Field Poll results showing Barbara Boxer leading 49 percent to 41 percent, and you’re being tricked. Look at the Rasmussen Poll that shows Boxer with a much narrower lead at 49 percent and 46 percent, and you’re being treated to a more accurate view of the direction of the Senate race.
...None of the public polls factor in the minor party candidates, who pull about 5 percent away from Boxer. Subtract five points from Boxer’s alleged Field Poll lead, and she receives 44 or 45 percent of the vote. Guess what? That’s consistent with the internal data we’re seeing. And that’s why Rasmussen has this race in the “toss-up” category.
My prediction? Carly will win by at least three, and that will be the real treat for Californians.
Is Wilson wearing rose-colored glasses? Perhaps. But he's a guy who knows what statewide GOP wins in California look like.