Among registered voters, Obama is 7% up. Among likely voters, he's either 4% or 6% up, depending on the turnout model that's used.
Keep in mind that, judging from the end of the Democrat primaries, Barack isn't a great closer (amazing, isn't it, that the primary race is the only competitive electoral history he has?). Also keep in mind that the race has swung dramatically both ways several times, in durations shorter than the 23 days that are left.
And then realize that when the MSM and Obama partisans try to convince Americans that the race is effectively over, it's because they actually suspect that, in truth, it's not.