It’s here. Today is the day. The Americans who have not yet voted will flock to the polls today. From what the fake news press has told us, Joe Biden has this thing locked up. He’s up by 10-18 points or something like that, so this thing is over, right? It will be interesting when the polls close and numerous key states that Biden was supposed to have a lock on cannot call it immediately. If you’re up by 10+ points, Pennsylvania shouldn’t be a long wait. The wait to tally up Ohio shouldn’t be long either. But it’s not going to be that easy for Joe Biden. Yes, it could be a ploy by the Democrats to keep their base anxious and to fake out Republicans, but their side has acknowledged that they’re not up by double-digits. A recent Zoom call by the Biden team showed that Trump was just one state away from winning re-election.
Director of Battleground Strategy Nick Trainer tells reporters that Biden campaign just outlined on a zoom call that said Trump was within one state of winning— Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) November 2, 2020
If the Biden campaign is publicly saying Trump is within one state of winning, imagine what they are seeing privately. https://t.co/z65s6C0GIg— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 2, 2020
The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:— Amber Athey (@amber_athey) November 2, 2020
- Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day
- Trump gets 2.6 million votes in Election Day
- Biden gets 1.5 million votes on election day
NEW POLL: TRUMP +1.9% IN PENNSYLVANIA— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 2, 2020
--was Trump +0.8 in previous Trafalgar poll https://t.co/w5lRZ3ml4g
Odd thing to for someone who is up 10 points in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. https://t.co/CxoxaAeIlY— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 3, 2020
Movement in PA: https://t.co/UzEwnriMAF— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 3, 2020
So, let me just lay the bottom layer down. I very well could be wrong. As Storm and I have said numerous times, someone is going to be right, and someone is going to be wrong. There is no middle here. And of course, I think Trump is going to win. Yet, if you want to base this solely on polls, I’d say you’re in the toss-up column since the polling has been all over the place all year.
You have college-educated voters being oversampled, along with Democrats and Trump-hating suburban Republicans. Trump Democrats are being bypassed. Rural Republicans are not being polled. The Trump vote is criminally undercounted. And overall, after 2016, I cannot trust the so-called experts. This whole year has been a dumpster fire for the experts who have given us contradictory advice regarding surface touching, masks, and aerosolization regarding the coronavirus. The era of the expert is declining due to this, especially when we can all smell a political angle to their so-called advice.
Right now, with regards to polling, the same clowns who thought Hillary Clinton would win 2016 are peddling virtually the exact same numbers. Given how Trump-deranged the media has become, you’re going to have to find other sources to clear through the nonsense. Folks, the media peddled a total myth about Russian collusion for three years. Why would we listen to them? Also, they tried to say, without evidence, that the Hunter Biden emails were a Russian misinformation operation. When that didn’t stick, they straight-up didn’t cover it. The emails contained information that could point to Joe Biden being more involved in his son’s shady business dealings, which allegedly involved selling access to government officials. In some cases, access to entities with ties to rival governments. But I digress; this isn’t about Hunter.
This poll shows 27% of Blacks in Pennsylvania supporting Trump: https://t.co/uSxCgVO88k— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 3, 2020
More info from the IBD/TIPP poll:— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 2, 2020
Biden +2.7 with likely voters: 48.6% to 45.9%.
Hispanic Trump support: 36.5%
Black Trump support: 15%https://t.co/4Vxb7xqaZL
Larry Schweikart, Democracy Institute, PollWatch2020, People’s Pundit, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, the most accurate battleground state poll in 2016, and others have been crunching the numbers on their own and have painted a different picture. For starters, Black and Hispanic voter support will be larger this year for Trump. In October, we heard talk of pro-Trump Hispanic support being so big that an electoral shift could occur (via National Review):
In the 2012 election, Barack Obama won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, helping him seal victory over Mitt Romney. Democrats and the media subsequently predicted that Obama’s capture of Hispanics — particularly his support among Cubans in Florida — defined a clear future for the party. Indeed, after the Obama administration’s “Cuban Thaw” policies and the president’s trip to Cuba in 2016, Democrats thought they would swing a generation of Cubans into their camp.
These predictions, however, may prove to have been more premature than prescient. A Florida International University 2020 poll released in early October found that 59 percent of Cubans in South Florida say they will vote for President Trump. Moreover, according to a report from Equis Research, Trump’s anti-socialism and anti-Left messaging resonates with “post-93” Cubans, who arrived in America during the 1994 rafter crisis.
In such data points, Giancarlo Sopo, the director of rapid response for Spanish Language Media at Trump’s reelection campaign, sees another electoral shift underway. While the president continues to fall behind Joe Biden in battleground Florida polls — where the Cuban vote is most crucial — Sopo nevertheless maintains this is a shift that will “outlive Joe Biden’s campaign.”
Well, a lot has changed, with Trump now taking the lead in Florida. Also, the Democrats’ early vote count has been whittled down to under 150,000, way under. Democrats are firing off warning flares. They’re encountering a two-fold problem. One is that a lot of anti-Trump voters are not in love with Biden, so there’s an enthusiasm issue. The most rabid of this cohort have already voted. Second, it appears the basement mentality of the Biden operation with regards to doing zero canvassing has bitten them in the rear. If Trump wins Florida, Biden’s chances of winning drop big league, below 50 percent, and Florida has been a good directional guide regarding how Michigan and Pennsylvania have voted in elections since 1968.
Youth voter turnout will be lower, much lower. The enthusiasm from young voters has reached record lows, levels not seen since 2000. Democracy Institute, which called Brexit correctly, noted that we can expect one million fewer young people to vote come Election Day. Well, if you see the early voting numbers from Minnesota, that narrative could hold up. Also, in key areas of battleground states, like the Research Triangle in North Carolina, scores of Democratic votes from college kids will not be there due to COVID.
Notable pollsters are cautioning Americans to refrain from getting too comfortable with polling predictions as Election Day approaches, suggesting polls may not account for “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters– those who are largely responsible for President Trump’s upset victory four years ago. In this election, the magnitude of such voters could be even greater.
Politico spoke to two pollsters who “weren’t blindsided” by the Trump phenomenon in 2016: Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly.
Cahaly is the chief pollster with the Trafalgar Group, which RealClearPolitics’ co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, called “one of the most accurate polling operations in America” because of its predictions in the last two political cycles. In 2016, Cahaly showed Trump winning both Pennsylvania and Michigan. His polls also showed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading his Democrat challenger, Andrew Gillum, in 2018’s gubernatorial race.
While Cahaly said he is “not even debating” if Joe Biden will secure the popular vote, he believes Trump is “likely” to enjoy another victory in the Electoral College due to the “hidden Trump votes out there.”
“We live in a country where people will lie to their accountant, they’ll lie to their doctor, they’ll lie to their priest,” Cahaly explained. “And we’re supposed to believe they shed all of that when they get on the telephone with a stranger?”
When asked what he would say to voters who believe the election is locked up for Biden, Cahaly emphasized his belief in “hidden” Trump voters.
“I don’t think it’s done. Some of these national polls are not even taking into consideration the fact that Republicans have closed the gap with voter registrations,” he said, adding that they are not “taking into account the number of low-propensity voters who are voting and who will vote on Election Day.”
“I don’t think they’re measuring people’s genuine opinions. And I think [pollsters] are just not going to see it coming,” he said.
Democracy Institute thinks this group will include one bloc that will surprise a lot of Democrats: Black urban women.
There’s the economic aspect of this too. The third-quarter report saw economic growth surge to 33 percent, double the figure seen in the post-World War II boom. Coal country still has old school Democrats who see their party becoming beholden to the Green New Deal. The Biden-Harris ticket will destroy fracking and the oil industry. That has been explicitly clear; it’s on tape. And Pennsylvania voters know the Democratic ticket is full of it on this issue. Speaking of which, that’s another state where Trump has taken the lead and Democrats are starting to sweat. Losing Florida will be bad. Losing the Keystone State will be electoral death for Biden. The latest string of polls has Trump soaring past 300 electoral votes. Remember, it’s the core three—North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona—plus one of the Rust Belt states that can lock this up for Trump. I think Trump will win the core three and take Michigan. If Michigan goes Trump, so will Pennsylvania, and that’s truly the ballgame. Also, can we please stop referring to Georgia, Iowa, and Texas as toss-ups? They’re not.
Georgia https://t.co/uiyESLOK16— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 2, 2020
You can feel the panic— Undercover Huber (@JohnWHuber) November 1, 2020
FINAL StatesPoll map: Trump 322 https://t.co/CMN8PLn0wj— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
??NEW POLL??— Sam (@SunshineSt8Sam) November 2, 2020
Michigan ?? pic.twitter.com/uu3uUBykyg
Trump +2.1 in North Carolina https://t.co/syKhL6yEpe— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLL SHOWS TRUMP WITH NARROW LEAD— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
(Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness)
Trump 48.7% (+1.3)
500 Likely Votershttps://t.co/Te7JeJuqy3
Trump +1.1 in WISCONSIN— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
Trump Black vote: 17%
Trump Hispanic vote: 41%
672 Likely Votershttps://t.co/dikpoxGKAI
Democracy Institute State Polls:— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 1, 2020
HUGE turnout for @realDonaldTrump in Georgia and Florida!— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) November 2, 2020
? 42,067 signups
? 31.4% NOT Republican
? 14,254 signups
? 23.9% did not vote in 2016
The enthusiasm is incredible!
FL: total Ds lead 95,130 so Rs again chopping that lead bit by bit.— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) November 1, 2020
Ds led 96,400 going into election day 2016 when Trump won by 113,000.
Florida is likely going to count its votes fast on Nov 3... Models I look at suggest Biden's chance of winning the prez if he wins FL is ~95%. It drops below 50% if he loses FL.— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 29, 2020
Trump +2 in Florida https://t.co/zpT2v9nREY— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 3, 2020
Liberals can believe the polls from their trash news outlets, even though they were wrong about Trump winning the GOP nomination, winning the presidency, and peddled a total lie about collusion, but disappointment is right around the corner. There’s no there-there with Biden to back any of that up. Hillary Clinton was a flawed candidate, an old Guard type, but one who could draw a crowd. Biden is a flawed candidate, possibly senile, hid in a basement all summer, and cannot draw a crowd. No one is excited about this guy. Since 1988, the candidate with the voter enthusiasm edge has won the election. Biden is a two-time loser who has zero experience being a frontrunner or the face of the party he claims to lead. We all know it’s Kamala Harris, a far-left acolyte, that’s really wearing the pants regarding this ticket.
For Trump, he has a reduced youth vote, reduced minority votes, increased Black and Hispanic voter support, and a swath of new voters heading to the polls. On average, 25 percent of Trump attendee rallies are people who didn’t vote in 2016; there’s also a good chunk of Democrats in these polls too. The oversampling of Democratic-friendly groups and the refusal to switch over to likely voter polls have created an echo chamber like no other. If Biden were truly ahead by 10+ points, he would be dominating in key areas like Florida's Miami-Dade County; he’s not.
Like in 2016, Trump will defy the expert class and the media elites to secure a second term. Will he lose the popular vote? Probably, but the Electoral College landslide is possible here. I mean, abject slaughter for Biden. And it wouldn’t shock me if Minnesota flips for Trump.
Last note, the latest Des Moines Register poll had Trump up seven points over Biden in Iowa. In 2016, that poll had Trump ahead by the same margin that foreshadowed his Midwest sweep. Is history repeating itself?
We shall see, but I think "four more years" of Trump is going to be the conclusion to this hellacious year.
Extra Credit: Here are the 2020 numbers Terry Kinder crunched. Very interesting.
My 2016 State-by-State vote and Electoral College Projections relied on Murrey Math and Probable Ranges.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
My thought was, rather than landing on a specific number it would be better to focus on probability and a number range. For example 50-53.125%.
To forecast 2016 I used the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
The 2016 polls were tilted too heavily in the direction of Hillary Clinton. Polls were off by about 6.25% meaning if a poll said a state race was 50-50 Clinton-Trump I would adjust it 50-3.125% = 46.857% Hillary &
50+3.125% = 53.125% for Trump. Those numbers would end up being converted to a range.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
Hillary at 46.875 would become 46.875 - 50%
Trump at 53.125% would become 53.125 = 56.25%.
There were also some adjustments right before to account for the herding effect.
The herding effect of the tendency of the crowd to herd in the direction of the winner on election day.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
This break-down on herding ends up something like -
62.5% of undecideds break for whoever is leading in state polls on Election Day - N(umber) Days.
37.5% of undecideds...
...break for the loser on Election Day - N Days.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
I was able to make my 2016 forecast because I had a fairly plentiful number of polls to look at and had a fair degree of confidence that, as a whole, polls had a sufficient degree of accuracy.
2020 has been more difficult to look at public polling. The polls appear not only more skewed but also less plentiful.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
This has made it difficult, if not impossible to put together a forecast using the same methods as 2016.
So, for 2020 I constructed a new model.
My 2020 model is based on the following:— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
1. 6.25% poll bias (just like 2016)
3. Historical estimations to calculate 3rd Party Vote
4. Herding Effect
The 6.25% poll bias is as described earlier. To correct the bias you have to subtract 3.125% from Biden polls and...
...add 3.125% to Trump polls.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
Cycles/Historical Data looked at 52 vs 56, 68 vs 72, and 80 vs 84 elections.
Estimations of 3rd Party Vote looked at 68-72, 92-96, 2016-Estimate of 2020.
Herding effect was as stated earlier - 62.5% of undecided vote goes to state poll...
...leader going into the final stretch. 37.5% of undecided vote goes to the loser going into the final stretch.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
With that, we can begin to look at some initial projections.
These will be a mix of landing on a number, e.g. 52.3% due to having higher confidence in estimates.
Other projections will be in ranges where drilling down on numbers was not as necessary or time did not permit.— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
Finally, there will be an Electoral College Projection.
Let's begin with some battleground states...
Current Florida Trump vs Biden vote projection— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
Trump - 52.1%
Biden - 46.3%
Revised Iowa Trump vs Biden vote projection— Terry Kinder (@tkinder) November 2, 2020
Trump - 53%
Biden - 44.3%#Election2020