FiveThirtyEight: Trump's Chances of Winning Has Gone Up At Least 20 Points In Two Weeks

Matt Vespa
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Posted: Nov 03, 2016 4:15 PM
FiveThirtyEight: Trump's Chances of Winning Has Gone Up At Least 20 Points In Two Weeks

Donald Trump still has a long way to go to get to 270, but one thing is clear: his chances have improved and this race is tightening up. On October 20, Clinton almost had a 90 percent chance to win, soaring around 86.9 percent to Trump’s 13.1 percent. As Election Day draws nearer, Trump’s chances have spiked at least 20 points in two weeks. As of today, Clinton has a 65.6 chance of winning to Trump’s 34.3 percent.

Was it due to the latest bombshell that the FBI will be reviewing more Clinton-related emails from top aide Huma Abedin that were discovered on Anthony Weiner’s laptop? Abedin shared this device with her estranged husband who is under investigation for online interactions with an underage girl. Well, it doesn’t appear to be that way. As Katie wrote, Democrats are holding firm with Clinton and a new Reuter’s poll shows that she still commands a six-point lead over Trump. The RCP average much lower, a 1.7-point lead. Momentum seems to be on Trump’s side; the question is whether this wave started too late.

Yet, as we speak, the FiveThirtyEight projection had Trump go up another point (UPDATE: It's dropped to 33.9).

On a side note, the Chicago Cubs won the World Series last night after extra innings, erasing their 108-year curse. They won, despite FiveThirtyEight giving them only a 31 percent chance of going all the way two weeks ago.