Professor With "Remarkable" Record of Predicting Elections Says Trump Will Win

Leah Barkoukis
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Posted: Oct 24, 2016 7:25 AM
Professor With "Remarkable" Record of Predicting Elections Says Trump Will Win

Forget what the polls and pundits are saying, Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, predicts Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth.

Norpoth, who has accurately predicted the last five presidential elections, uses two models. The first, he told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson, is the primary model, which tracks how the candidates are performing, and “it usually turns out the candidate who does better in his party's primaries or her party’s primaries beats the other guy who does less well.”

He used the primary races in South Carolina and New Hampshire for the 2016 election, where Trump won and did better than Clinton did in the Democratic race.

The second model, he explains, is called the Swing of the Pendulum, which is the tendency for a change after two terms of a party being in the White House. This, of course, gives the prediction that a Republican will win in 2016.

Norpoth is so convinced by his models that he’s putting his money where his mouth is. He bought shares in the Republican candidate in the Iowa Electronic Markets a long time ago and he’s sticking with it, he said.