Bounce: Trump Takes the Lead in National Polling Average

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 @guypbenson
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Posted: Jul 25, 2016 1:05 PM
Bounce: Trump Takes the Lead in National Polling Average

PHILADELPHIA - As we anticipated, Donald Trump is enjoying a customary post-convention polling bounce. So far, the boost appears to be modest but clear. Despite a messy RNC in Cleveland, the GOP ticket has surged across multiple polls in advance of the DNC here in Philly. Democrats, meanwhile, will gavel in their quadrennial confab in a state of chaos and disunity. The soon-to-be-ex party chairwoman was booed off the stage by her own state delegation, and Bernie Sanders delegates are openly discussing mounting a floor challenge against Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton's Vice Presidential pick. Will Trump's gains create a deeper schism within the Democratic ranks (see? we never should have nominated this flawed woman!), or will the prospect of a Trump presidency pull the center-Left together (differences aside, he must be stopped)?  We shall see.  Either way, memo to the party that rigged the system to coronate one of the least liked and least trusted politicians of our time -- Donald J. Trump has now seized a very slight national lead:

Morning Consult also has Trump +4.  It's worth noting that the USC tracking poll, like Rasmussen, has been uncommonly kind to Trump. On the other hand, Reuters' tracker has been especially unkind to him, and their latest (mid-RNC) numbers had him within low single digits -- a major shift away from her.  An additional data point to highlight is how in the CNN survey, Trump's margin of advantage grows when Libertarian Gary Johnson is included; in CBS News' findings, Johnson pulls equally from both major parties.  The notion that Johnson acts as a disproportionately anti-GOP spoiler has been undermined by the polling over several months:

The CBS battleground poll of 11 swing states was virtually unchanged from prior to Trump's nominating convention. Hillary Clinton's position remained exactly static, as the billionaire gained two points to take a razor-thin lead, well within the margin of error. It's now 42/41 for The Donald:

And here's elections guru Nate Silver announcing that his unweighted electoral model has shifted dramatically to give Trump the edge:

It's virtually inevitable that the Clinton/Kaine ticket will garner a convention bump of its own, reshuffling the numbers by next week. But as of July 25, 2016, literally the most disliked presidential nominee in the history of American political polling is beating Hillary Rodham Clinton. Over to you, Associated Press: 

Hillary Clinton has a problem. Too many voters say they're supporting her for a reason you'd never want printed on a campaign T-shirt: "I'm voting for the lesser of two evils." It's far from inspiring...Democrats and independent voters in the Philadelphia suburbs — a crucial area in a competitive state — expressed mixed feelings about Clinton in the days leading up to this week's Democratic National Convention in their hometown. Like Trump, Clinton has her faithful followers. And like Trump, negative views of Clinton run deep, even among some supporters. Half of Clinton's own backers say they consider her only slightly or not at all honest, and more than one-third say she's only slightly or not at all likable, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted this month. "I'm not excited," said Matthew Mousley, 36, of Springfield, who nevertheless plans to support Clinton. "I guess, it's just, I feel like there should be better options." It's a worry for Clinton's top aides, who see maximizing Democratic turnout as a main campaign challenge.

Bravo, Democrats.