EU Referendum Scorecard: Did Obama move the polls?

Reuters News
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Posted: Apr 29, 2016 8:31 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - After Barack Obama warned British voters against voting to leave the European Union, opinion polls so far suggest the U.S. president has failed to swing support behind continued membership.

The "In" campaign immediately used Obama on their campaign literature, next to a picture of Donald Trump and the question: "Whose side are you on?"

An online YouGov survey taken after Obama's remarks indicate his intervention was not a turning point. But beneath the headline numbers, the poll did show that the In campaign was gaining support for its economic arguments.

British politicians will be preoccupied by the May 5 local election next week.

MONEY

Sterling was at its strongest in 12 weeks on Friday and, on a weekly basis, on track for its best performance since early March. For the month, the pound looked set for a second straight month of gains - for the first time since late 2013. [GBP/]

BETTING ODDS

After Obama's intervention, the implied probability of an In vote shot up by over 10 percentage points to as much as 75 percent on Monday. But by Friday, the implied probability of an In vote was back around 70 percent, according to Betfair.

POLLS

* YouGov online poll, April 25-26: Out on 42 percent versus In on 41 percent, 13 percent don't know.

* Survation telephone poll, April 25-26: Out on 38 percent versus In on 45 percent, 17 percent undecided.

* ICM online poll, April 22-24: Out on 46 percent versus In on 44 percent, 10 percent don't know.

* ORB telephone poll, April 20-24: Out on 43 percent versus In on 51 percent, 6 percent don't know.

QUOTES OF THE WEEK

BARACK OBAMA:

"The UK is going to be in the back of the queue," for a trade deal with the United States if it leaves the EU.

NORMAN LAMONT, FORMER BRITISH FINANCE MINISTER:

"His [Obama's] meddling stems not from his concerns for Britain or, indeed Europe, but from his own — America’s — interests."

ANGEL GURRIA, SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT:

"Britain, look at yourself in the mirror, naked. Do you like what you see? Mostly I hope you come out saying: not too much,"

NIGEL FARAGE, LEADER OF THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY:

"Organizations like the OECD & IMF staffed by overpaid former politicians who failed mostly. Of course UK can thrive outside EU!"

IMAGE OF THE WEEK

Prime Minister David Cameron and former TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber visit a factory to speak together in support of EU membership.

CURIOSITY OF THE WEEK

The Church of England released a prayer for the EU referendum campaign.

"God of truth, give us grace to debate the issues in this referendum with honesty and openness. Give generosity to those who seek to form opinion and discernment to those who vote, that our nation may prosper and that with all the peoples of Europe we may work for peace and the common good; for the sake of Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen."

(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Andrew Roche)