India inflation rate eases to 3-year low

AP News
Posted: Apr 15, 2013 6:07 AM

MUMBAI, India (AP) — Inflation in India declined to a three-year low in March, possibly allowing the central bank to keep cutting interest rates to help revive a sputtering economy.

Wholesale price inflation fell to 6 percent from 6.8 percent in February, according to provisional figures Monday from the Ministry of Commerce.

However, food prices were still rising sharply and were 8.7 percent higher in March than the previous year. Higher prices were particularly prominent in staples such as wheat, up 19.9 percent, and rice, which rose 17.9 percent. Fuel costs jumped 10.2 percent.

The central bank has cut borrowing rates twice this year to help jump start Asia's third-largest economy but has been hesitant to move too aggressively for fear of making inflation worse.

The inflation rate reported Monday was the lowest in 40 months and was encouraging news after years of inflation hovering between 7 and 8 percent, said Nomura India economist Sonal Varma.

"Still, food inflation remains quite high and that is worrisome," Varma said.

Food and fuel are the biggest expenses for India's poor. Some 825 million of India's 1.2 billion people live on less that $2 a day, the World Bank estimates.

The government has forecast 5 percent economic growth for the fiscal year that ended March, the slowest in a decade.

The bank has pledged to bring overall wholesale inflation down to below 4.5 percent.

Varma said the RBI's two previous cuts in the key rate at which it lends money to financial institutions still has not resulted in banks passing on the savings to businesses and consumers. That, plus a report last week showing growth in monthly industrial production slowed to just 0.6 percent could prompt the central bank to cut interest rates again when it meets May 3.

"The balance favors probably easing," Varma said. "A rate cut is not a done deal, even though inflation numbers have come down."

India's stock benchmark, the Sensex, was up 0.5 percent Monday afternoon to 18,334.63 as traders interpreted the inflation report as increasing chances of another interest rate cut.