The 2026 midterms were a disaster for the Republicans. Every demographic saw a massive swing toward the Democrats, especially among the core blocs that formed the MAGA base. A double-digit-plus swing toward the Democrats among white working-class voters was especially devastating, though it’s irrelevant because we got killed all over. Still, a slight tweak in the white non-college demographic, even two-to-three points, could swing an election, as we saw in the Rust Belt in 2020.
It goes without saying, but there's very little chance that Democrats will lose the House or Senate in 2028. Their majorities are just too large now and with unified control of multiple state legislatures, they can easily gerrymander themselves an almost guaranteed House majority through the 2030 census.
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 4, 2026
END OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? DEMS COULD ACT AFTER STATE LEGISLATIVE GAINS Democrats’ new trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada could let them push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact past the 270-electoral-vote threshold needed to take effect. The compact currently covers 222 electoral votes. Adding the five states’ 61 votes would bring it to 283. Once active, participating states would award their electors to the national popular-vote winner rather than the candidate who won their state.
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 4, 2026
Dems will get 55 Senate seats and 250+ House seats. Looking at the Senate map and considering such a massive House margin, it is very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. Might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032. https://t.co/40BP6SjOaq
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) November 4, 2026
So, what’s the butcher’s bill? It’s steep. It’ll take Republicans years to chip away at the majority Democrats have accrued in the House and Senate. Think 2006 — it’s possible we could have a red wave and retake the House, as the GOP did in 2010, but it took until 2014 to retake the Senate, though some of that was due to poor candidates in 2012. Still, the wave struck at the state level. We have numerous states where Democrats now control the state legislatures and the governor’s mansions. It’s the trifecta, and no doubt they will push to gerrymander to protect and curb the electoral hammer that’s coming for Democrats when the 2030 census kicks in.
Is the Electoral College at risk? On paper, yes.
Democrats won enough trifectas last night to theoretically obtain an absolute majority of the electoral college for the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and they certainly have Congressional majorities large enough to authorize such a compact. The only question is whether it would survive a court challenge. If they win the Presidency in 2028 and stack the Supreme Court as many Dems have threatened to do the moment they have the votes, there’s a chance that we will never again have Presidential elections in America decided by the Electoral College. I do not think people fully understand yet that Democrats won enough elections last night to permanently change this country in a way that may make things impossible to ever undo. Political parties operate off incentives. Their goal is to win elections, not permanently pander to a specific demographic constituency. While they can spend years or even decades in the wilderness, eventually, someone will look at the median voter and determine that he too can win an election by pandering to everyone to the Left or Right of that individual. So what happens when one side of the equation permanently changes the rules so that the median voter shifts from someone living in Ohio to say someone living in Virginia? The Beautiful Losers may not immediately return to power tomorrow, but make no mistake they are quietly waiting in the wings, hoping that Democrats change the rules of the American electoral process in order to permanently enshrine them as the natural controlled opposition.
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 4, 2026
The gains we made with President Trump were washed away, but this isn’t the first time the Republican Party got smacked by a wave year. We’ll fight on and rebuild, but it’ll take years. Meanwhile, restock, reload, and fight on. We can’t surrender — have you seen these people?
🚨 JUST IN: The only way for Republicans to barely control the Senate in 2028 if current results hold (56D-44R) 🔴 Win presidency 🔴 Ohio 🔴 Arizona 🔴 Nevada 🔴 Georgia 🔴 Pennsylvania 🔴 New Hampshire 🔴 Hold Wisconsin, North Carolina, Alaska, Florida, Iowa and Tennessee special Genuinely requires an actual red wave — 2024 margins would not cut it. Not to mention incumbents like Mark Kelly, Cortez Masto, Warnock, Fetterman, Hasan etc. must be all unseated. **Using preliminary Senate results assuming GOP loses Mississippi and Alaska**
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2026