Yes, we’re blind. Yes, you should still be skeptical of the polls; Fox News' Bill Meliguin busted a fraudulent one in the New Jersey Senate race. The campaigns should ignore the polls and focus on GOTV operations, getting through the debates for candidates who still have them on the docket, and delivering final talking points for the home stretch. You can’t whine about surveys that have been beyond volatile. But we’re not running campaigns, so we took a gander at some, and they show a blue wave isn’t coming, with one showing electoral death for Democrats if this holds.
It’s wild — if the polls are underestimating GOP support by 1-3 points, Republicans retain control of Congress. The Hispanic poll is especially interesting. Again, if true:
Absolute numbers in polling are less important than momentum shifts for reasons I've gotten into (Republican reluctance to answer polls). Most polls are showing shifts toward Republicans, but this one is a net 5 point shift. Bad news for Democrats and Doomers and their dreams of a blue wave.
— Mark Mendlovitz (@MendlovitzMark) October 15, 2026
If Hispanics are R+2, it's over for the Democrats.
— Mark Mendlovitz (@MendlovitzMark) October 15, 2026
CNN’s Harry Enten thinks it’s possible that the GOP could retain the House and Senate if the polls underestimate Republicans by only 2-4 points, Senate could go 53-47 GOP Red and the House remains in Republican hands. Don’t let the polls keep you from getting out to vote on election day! So go vote and let’s make it a reality that the Republicans WIN!
— Gary D (@KMGGaryde) October 15, 2026
Back to Earth: I still don’t know what to think.