EU cuts growth forecasts as big economies falter

AP News
Posted: Nov 04, 2014 10:25 AM
EU cuts growth forecasts as big economies falter

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union cut its already low economic growth forecasts further on Tuesday, indicating the recovery will remain sluggish amid problems for the bigger countries, particularly France and Germany.

The official forecast for growth this year in the 18-country eurozone was cut to 0.8 percent from a prediction of 1.2 percent made in the spring. Indicating little good was expected next year too, it reduced the 2015 prediction from 1.7 percent to 1.1 percent.

"The situation in the euro area remains extremely fragile," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Unemployment in the currency union was forecast to decrease at a painfully slow rate — after 11.6 percent this year, it is expected to dip to 11.3 percent next year and 10.8 percent in 2016.

The broader 28-nation EU, which includes non-euro members like Britain and Sweden, was expected to grow 1.3 percent this year from a previous 1.6 percent forecast.

To help speed up the recovery, EU Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said the bloc should focus on spending on special projects, for which the EU Commission has a 300 billion euro ($375 billion) plan.

He said the plan would be presented to the EU parliament before the end of the year. "There is a real sense of urgency."

The economic weakness stems in particular from a poor performance in Europe's larger countries, with the exceptions of Spain and Britain.


The EU Commission sees growth this year "coming to a stop in Germany after a very strong first quarter."

That is expected to be only temporary, however, with Europe's largest economy forecast to grow again next year "with the support of a robust labor market, favorable financing conditions and improving external demand." Unemployment is expected to be 5.1 percent in 2014.

Some say Germany should spend more to boost growth because it has the public finances to do so.

Merkel acknowledged the need for more investment, but stressed that her government doesn't believe it should be done "on credit" and defended her drive for budget discipline. "Public investment and private investment must go hand in hand," she said.


France, Europe's second biggest economy, has been under pressure for years to improve its performance but the EU said that growth is forecast to remain low in 2014 and 2015. Unemployment is seen increasing to 10.4 percent this year.

"Short-term indicators do not suggest that a firm recovery is imminent," the EU report said.

France has run into trouble with the EU over its high deficit. It should not expect quick turnaround. The EU predicts France's budget deficit will continue to rise, hitting 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016, to become the biggest in the eurozone.

Finance Minister Michel Sapin said France must work together with its EU partners "to answer together a crucial question: how to regain, as quickly as possible, more growth and jobs."


So often an outsider in EU matters, Britain will be happy to keep to that role with better economic forecasts than most other countries.

Its growth is forecast at 3.1 percent this year and predicted to accelerate. Unemployment is set to stay on a downward trend, moving from 6.2 percent this year to 5.5 percent in 2016.


Many of the countries that were hit hardest by the financial crisis, mostly in southern Europe, had mostly improved forecasts.

Spain should see growth accelerate to 1.7 percent next year, but joblessness would remain sky high at 24.8 percent this year before dropping slightly. Greece is expected to return to growth with a 0.6 percent expansion this year and 3.7 percent in 2016, compared with a drop of 8.9 percent in 2011.

Ireland, which needed an international bailout ion 2010, is now set to become the fastest growing economy in the EU, with growth slated at 4.6 percent this year.


Associated Press writers Geir Moulson in Berlin and Greg Keller in Paris contributed to this report.


Raf Casert can be followed on Twitter at