Corn prices surge on tight 2012 inventory forecast

AP News
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Posted: Jun 09, 2011 4:05 PM
Corn prices surge on tight 2012 inventory forecast

Corn prices surged Thursday after the government lowered its estimate for this summer's crop and predicted global inventories will remain tight in 2012.

Corn settled up 2.8 percent Thursday at $7.855 a bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted U.S. corn stockpiles will total 695 million bushels in 2012. The total fell 205 million bushels from its previous estimate after heavy rains delayed spring planting in the eastern Corn Belt and Northern Plains.

The estimate is important because the U.S. is the world's No. 1 corn exporter. Corn stockpiles are already short, and analysts have said for months that the U.S. needs to produce as much corn as possible this summer to offset tight supplies as demand grows stronger from other nations, ethanol producers and livestock owners.

The agency forecast global corn supplies at 111.9 million tons next year, which will be the lowest inventory since 2006-2007 if the prediction holds through the growing season.

China's production was expected to increase, but the department said that will be offset by higher consumption, leaving inventory at 51 million tons in 2012, just below the previous two years.

"We are on the precipice of a very severe situation in the corn market," said Richard Feltes, vice president of research at R.J. O'Brien& Associates.

"The outcome of the 2011 growing seasons in both China and the Midwest corn belt are going to be critically important to food supplies, food inflation, the whole fragile economic recovery," he said. "It's a real domino effect here all hinging on the weather here coming up in the next 90 days."

In other agricultural contracts for July, wheat slipped 3 cents to $7.45 a bushel and soybeans fell 7.75 cents to $13.9375 a bushel.

Other commodities mostly rose, led by rising oil prices in the wake of OPEC's decision to leave production levels intact for now. Many investors are speculating that will create a rally in commodity prices, Telvent DTN analyst Darin Newsom said.

Benchmark oil for July delivery rose $1.19 to settle at $101.93 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other Nymex contracts, heating oil rose 4.41 cents to settle at $3.1378 per gallon, gasoline gained 6.11 cents to $3.0398 per gallon and natural gas fell 17.3 cents to $4.674 per 1,000 cubic feet.

August gold rose $4 to settle at $1,542.70 an ounce.

In July contracts, silver gained 80.4 cents to settle at $37.424 an ounce, copper fell 0.1 cent to $4.1075 a pound and platinum rose $13.50 to $1,844.70 an ounce. September palladium rose $12.40 to settle at $818.10 an ounce.