Sometimes you must lose to win. Had Trump won in 2020, we wouldn't be seeing such a huge realignment in the United States. How big is the realignment? Trump not only won the popular vote - the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 - he won a commanding 312 Electoral College votes. Republicans are at 53 seats in the U.S. Senate and they held their majority in the U.S. House. But how did we get here?
The Democratic victory in 2020 led to an overreach by their most progressive tendencies (unfettered abortion, pro-trans positions, Green New Deal, etc.)
Joe Biden had campaigned with a promise to unite America, reestablish United States credibility with foreign leaders, and generally be “the adult in the room.”
But he almost immediately abandoned those promises and pushed massive spending increases, massive government growth, refused to work with Republicans in the U.S. House, and generally governed like Bernie Sanders. He even seriously discussed blowing up the filibuster to increase the size of the Supreme Court, make D.C. a state, and to pass election reform laws that would essentially wipe out the First Amendment. It was a massive overreach.
Just as Republicans had their post-Bush wander through the wilderness, the Democrats will be in the wilderness for the foreseeable future.
The 2024 presidential election is comparable to 1980, when Reagan defeated a weak President who was overseeing a terrible economy. Republicans held the White House for 12 years. There is a good chance that the Republicans will hold the White House for at least the next 8 years - the last term of Trump and then a Republican win in 2028. This is because it’s unlikely that the Democratic Party will course correct within the time it will take to be competitive in 2028. Also, the Trump term could be a surprise most liberal commentators with how many bi-partisan big deals get done.
There will be a few Democratic House members and Senators who will be smart enough to work with Trump, but the vast majority of the Democrats in the House and Senate will play to their progressive base. And in doing so, delay their needed course correction.
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Democrats need to reassess their priorities. Long gone is the assumption that they are the party of the working class. They have become the party of elites – Hollywood, Wall Street, media, and Washington. They have lost sight of the plight of the underprivileged and put their focus on the exotic and extreme. Whether it be abortion as birth control, grooming children to make permanent changes to their bodies based on temporary feelings, or their utter disdain for anything resembling faith in a higher power.
In short, progressive Democrats are weird. Yet they sought to paint huge swaths of average Americans as weird. And they wonder why there was such a backlash.
Money didn’t help. The Democratic candidates from President down to state legislatures outspent Republican candidates by stunning ratios. And the outside groups supporting Democrats put Republican outside groups to shame in the avalanche of money that poured across the country. While money may be the mother’s milk of politics, if that milk is spoiled, it doesn’t matter how much you spend.
The issue that Democrats leaned in on the most was abortion. In every single race, abortion played an outsized role in the Democratic messaging. Yes, abortion initiatives passed in nearly every state it was on the ballot – it received a majority vote in all but two (South Dakota and Nebraska). But the Democrat belief that abortion would carry their candidates to victory was crushed by voters who cared more about pocketbook issues, immigration, and rejecting the weird agenda of the progressives.
How will Democrats respond? Will they recognize that they have completely lost touch with the average American?
Some will, and they will be rewarded for it. The average American wants a functioning government, but one that is not cumbersome. Smart Democrats will join forces with Republicans in finding ways to increase the efficiency of programs, not just throw money at them. They will seek common-sense solutions to the challenges facing Americans, and not speak down to them or belittle their belief systems.
But most Democrats won’t try to solve problems, they will keep blaming their own constituents for being racist, bigots, and anti-trans.
The reckoning has come, and the length of time in the wilderness will depend on Democrats' ability to recognize that their faith in false gods has led to failure.
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