In Cincinnati this week, President Bush delivered a successful
speech on Iraq. It was clear and concise. His reasoning hit hard. The speech
bolstered support for strong resolutions in the U.S. Congress and the U.N.
by going around the media and directly to the country. It was a very
Reagan-like moment for Bush.
But isn't it time he gave a similar talk on the economy?
A month before the midterm election, you almost need a
microscope to distinguish between recession and recovery. Take, for example,
the recent jobs loss in September. There is no recovery yet for business
employment. Total jobs are 1.7 million below the peak of March 2001. The
number of total unemployed throughout the country has increased from 5.5
million two years ago to 8 million today. Industrial production, perhaps the
best coincident economic indicator, remains nearly 5 percent below its June
There is very little evidence of any recovery at all in
business-capital investment, a key economic driver during the 1990s. While
consumers are still spending, the supply-side of the economy is dormant.
Oh, and then there's the stock market. In the bear market of the
mid-1970s, the Dow Jones used to sell off 10 points a day. Now it plummets
150 points a day. Then the problem was stagflation. Now it's just stag, with
a mild dose of price deflation mixed in.
Still, whether the ailment is inflation or deflation, no growth
or slow growth, there are proven cures. More than 20 years ago, a tighter
Federal Reserve money policy curbed inflation, and lower tax rates
strengthened incentives and re-ignited growth. In today's deflating economy,
an easier Fed policy of increased money growth would stabilize prices, and
lower tax rates for individuals and businesses (including an end to the
double taxation of dividends) would stimulate investment, employment and
At this point of the so-called recovery, with productivity
rising at 5 percent, real GDP should be expanding at 6 percent or more. But
instead, we are clinging to a 3 percent GDP growth trend that may or may not
This is really a growth pause -- or even a growth recession. In
absolute terms the economy is rising, but the rate of that rise is
unsatisfactory. That's what Washington seems to be missing. This economy was
built for speed. Airplanes designed to take off at 165 mph won't get
airborne at 50 mph.
President Bush has been Reagan-like in his prosecution of the
war on terror. But he has a long way to go on the economy if he is to meet
the Gipper's domestic-leadership test.
More than likely, it is the Bush economic team that is not
developing the necessary pro-growth formula. There are some bright heads in
the group, but they are offset by the meatheads. No good deed goes
unpunished in this gang.
But economic victory can still be rescued from the jaws of
defeat. Rumors abound that the White House is now engaged in a job search to
completely revamp its economic team. Market-savvy New Yorkers like
Blackstone's Steve Schwartzman and the New York Stock Exchange's Richard
Grasso might be on the list to replace the ineffective Paul O'Neill at
Treasury. There are also some welcome plans for the post-Greenspan era at
the Fed. With new leadership blood in place, a vigorous effort to bring
significant growth back to this economy can begin.
So far, Bush has had a Teflon coating when it comes to the
domestic situation. Polls suggest that downtrodden 401(k) holders understand
he inherited a market plunge and recession that began in mid-2000. Corporate
corruption is being blamed on the CEOs, not the president.
But that Teflon will quickly wear thin if this growth recession
continues much longer.
Recently, former Vice President Al Gore and Senate Majority
Leader Tom Daschle blamed Bush for the economy and the stock market, even
though former Clinton economic advisors like Nobelist Joe Steiglitz have
said the downturn began on the Clinton-Gore watch. But President Bush can
seize the high ground with a strong pre-election speech rebutting this
Democratic attack. He should give a Reaganesque address to the country, not
unlike his Cincinnati speech, where he lays out his future vision for
economic growth. Included in this talk, he can make good on his August
pledge for an investor-tax-cut package.
In clear and simple terms, he can tell America what economic
problems he inherited, and what economic policies he truly believes in. He
can plainly describe how lower taxes and tighter spending will deliver a
strong economy at home and bolster the war effort abroad. In doing so, he
will also provide a nationwide Republican platform for the elections and
give people a clear reason to pull the GOP lever on Nov. 5. Who knows? If
Bush takes the economic helm, stocks might start rising 150 points a day.