Republicans will be wanting to 'recount Illinois,' I said to a seemingly annoyed former Kerry staffer and Obama supporter in the Fox News green room on Friday.
"How do you figure?" came the response.
I said, "It's pretty simple. If Obama doesn't change his message (amongst other things), this isn't even gonna be close."
I almost felt sorry for him, as he nodded his head in agreement, and walked away.
Personally--and for the record--let me say up front that I don't expect the election results of 2012 to wield a blow-out for the GOP. But presently the race, the state of the nation, and the complete incompetence of the Obama campaign are doing all they can to persuade me.
Obama supporters will argue, "Kevin you're in the middle of summer and no one pays attention at this point." Under normal conditions I would agree with you, but people are paying attention--they have been for 3.5 years--and to be honest they're exhausted.
So let me give you some very salient points as to why the landscape is providing the possibility for a Romney blowout:
1. Obama's operation is behaving like they will get total cover from the press, while Romney's is assuming they won't.
This is of huge importance. The truth is both assumptions are wrong. Romney will get some good coverage, and eventually some mainstream outlets will hold Obama accountable for his gaffes, missteps, and strike-outs (even several mainstream sources were forced to report on him commenting that "the private sector is fine"). Yet because Obama's team behaves like they can get away with anything, they've gotten careless--with timing, execution, and specifics. Axelrod and company are making the keystone cops look brilliant, and it really is beginning to show. Likewise--while Romney hasn't been completely error free--his team is paying attention to the slogan on the front of his podium. He's on message about jobs and the economy constantly, and he's moving poll numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and even California.
2. Team Obama's mistakes are causing panic--hence poor campaigning.
It wasn't the Romney team that told President Obama to go out and drag the effort to redefine marriage into the 2012 election cycle. And they certainly didn't tell Obama to do so merely two days after North Carolina--a tightly contested swing state--just voted two to one in favor of the traditional definition in President Obama's most loyal voting block--African Americans. If Mitt Romney can get 2% more African Americans to vote for him--or just stay home on election day--he will cause the President to lose in a demographic that has been the only subset of voters current surveys indicate he has the possibility to hold on to.
3. Obama's tactics are being unveiled--at his own doing--and people are seeing through them.
To come out to the White House rose garden and pronounce that your administration was going to unilaterally offer hundreds of thousands of work permits to young illegal aliens--when the state of the nation can not currently handle or contain the number of Americans without work is tantamount to wondering why your electric bill is so high when every appliance in your home is left on 24 hours a day. The economy is paying the price of a faltering small business/private sector that has difficulty being able to predict with certainty what new penalties they will see if they even stay in business. The thought of hiring workers is already an obstacle so great they can barely risk it. Small businesses create two out of every three new jobs in the nation and now with hundreds of thousands more workers flooding the marketplace, helping American families find food for the table each night becomes more challenging.
4. Obama isn't listening to anyone except his donors. (And there are far fewer of them this go around...)
When every day Democrats with day jobs like--Congressman Ford, Gov. Rendell, or Mayor Booker--attempt to get the President to moderate his tone, speech and tactics--they are excommunicated from the inner circle. When Ana Wintour, Sarah Jessica Parker, Steven Spielberg, or Ludicrous come calling--suddenly he has all the time necessary. The AFL-CIO, amongst other unions, this week announced they're pulling money out of the presidential race. And even the young person's vote--a group he had plenty of energy with in 2008 is becoming disinterested and uninvolved. It could likely be due to the fact that employment in their demographic is at a record rate.
5. Obama is full of excuses, and empty of results.
President Obama's likability is suffering--and will suffer more--because people are not able to square his big talk with a first term that passed record government spending and took over private sector health care provision--all while adding more to the debt and deficit that all presidents before him--combined. Ultimately this attempt by government to become the end-all be-all for the individual has finally caught up to the reality of the cost. The recovery is too slow, the cost is too great, the help is more expensive, and the results have become excuses.
Governor Romney's task is singular and simple, continue to tell the nation how he will get them working again. Demonstrate to small businesses that his understanding of what they are dealing with is what will guide him in all phases of his genuine economic recovery plan. Continue to send out the alert that he will repeal Obamacare (if any of it is left standing after the Supreme Court is finished with it.) And inspire them to see a better day, where each of us play the deciding factor in our own success.
This week in New York City, President Obama told the Wintour-Parker-Streep nexus that they would be the deciding factor in the nation's future.
This week to the tax-payers of Ohio, Governor Romney said that he believes the American people should be.
In making that message clear, it might just clear the way to a much larger win, than any current pollster is willing to project.