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There Has to Be a Better Way

Near Triple Digits Gains Using Market Direction Model

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of

Virtue of Selfish Investing's Market Direction Model is on track to score yet another near triple digit percentage gain this year.

"The long term results of the model going back to 1974 are +33.1% annually using the NASDAQ Composite, a major index," said co-founder Dr. Chris Kacher.


"I have used the model to keep myself on the right side of the markets since 1991, and it is largely responsible for my KPMG audited track record which contains a number of years where my returns were in triple digit territory, or above +100%."

Kacher continues, "My triple digit percentage gains in years past were achieved picking and pyramiding into the right stocks, but with all the 3-times ETFs that now exist, the returns of the model using such an ETF would be roughly 3-times +33.1% or +99.3% annually."

How has the model fared in challenging years such as 2000-2002 and 2008?

Again, using a major benchmark such as the NASDAQ Composite resulted in gains of +41.9% in 2000, +42% in 2001, and +8.6% in 2002 using NO leverage and 1-times ETF QQQ.

Had 3-times ETFs existed then, one could triple these returns to get an approximation of how one would have done in those perniciously challenging years. And in 2008, the model was up +38.8% using NO leverage and 1-times ETF QQQ, a year when most funds were down more than -50%.

In recent years, the model was up +157.3% in 2009 and +86.5% in 2010 using 3-times ETF TNA which trades at 3-times the Russell 2000 index.

As of September 6, 2011, the model is up +63.8% using TNA and +68.5% using 3-times ETF TYH. Results of the Market Direction Model are shown here:


To give investors a better idea of how the market direction model works, shown below is a one-year example of buy, sell, and neutral signals issued by the model on the 3-times ETF TYH.

From March 12, 2009 - May 14, 2010, the market direction model was up +183.9% going 100% long TYH on a buy signal, 100% short TYH on a sell signal, and 100% cash on a neutral signal.

Click here then scroll down to the Timing Model profit/loss on TYH table to see the exact dates of these signals. Note, the model's fail safes kicked in which minimized losses while the gains made during the trends more than made up for the small losses.

Of course, due to the highly aggressive nature of this account, drawdowns as high as -18.5% were not unusual but that is the price to pay to get to +183.9%.

Note, had you been using a 1-times ETF, your gains would be roughly 1/3 of those shown, but your drawdowns would also be roughly 1/3 of -18.5%, or -6.1% 

John Ransom | Create Your Badge

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