Last night, the Washington area was drenched overnight by a steady,
hours-long downpour. As the rain fell, a natural first reaction was
gratitude that the drought that had been afflicting our region would be
eased somewhat as reservoirs, rivers and wells inched back towards normal
levels.
No such relief is in prospect for Israel, an arid nation that even
in good times contends with water shortfalls that make those confronting
Washington and other parts of the United States pale by comparison. At the
moment, however, the Jewish State confronts a combination of forces -- a
meteorological drought, regional efforts to deny it access to water and
misbegotten U.S. diplomacy -- that could threaten Israel's very existence.
An Israeli online publication called Globes reported on November 6
that Israel's Meteorological Service is forecasting a winter drought over
the period from December 2002 to February 2003, historically the country's
wettest months. If the predictions prove accurate, Israel will see little
precipitation, prompting its Water Commissioner, Shimon Tal, to warn that
"Israel's reservoirs will be empty by the end of the 2003 winter, posing a
real threat to the supply of drinking water." According to Mr. Tal, "this
situation will last until the desalination facilities [being built in
Israel] are fully operational and other water sources, including imports in
2004, are created, which will provide 400 million cubic meters of water a
year."
Unfortunately, Israel's access to drinking water could be even more
dramatically afflicted, and for a far longer time, if one or more of the
following eventuate:
o Lebanon has unilaterally initiated a program to provide water for
communities in its south by tapping the Wazzani Spring, a tributary to the
Hatzbani River that flows, in turn, into Israel's Sea of Galilee. By some
estimates, Lebanon controls as much as 20% of the Jewish State's fresh water
resources and its plan for the Wazzani would divert as much as 50 million
cubic meters a year from downstream Israel. According to the Jerusalem Post,
"This is the same amount of water Israel supplies to Jordan each year under
the peace accord between the two countries and more than the allotted amount
given to the Palestinians. It is equivalent to the quantity of fresh water
proposed to be imported from Turkey and the total annual production capacity
of a major seawater desalination plant."
In the face of Israel's already acute drought, the prospect of the
loss of the Wazzani water prompted Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to
warn that Israel would take militarily action to destroy Lebanon's new
pumping station. This threat brought promises of retaliation from
Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorists and called to mind a similar moment in
the mid-1960s when Israeli artillery fired on Syrian positions in order to
prevent Damascus' diversion of the Banias River. Newsday recently noted
that this, in turn "trigger[ed] a series of skirmishes that eventually led
to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war."
o Matters would be made considerably worse if the aforementioned fresh
water Turkey had promised to sell Israel is not forthcoming. On October 20,
the Middle East News Line reported that Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman
Yusuf Buluc announced that "Israel and Turkey had agreed that Israel will
purchase 50 million cubic meters per year for a period of 20 years, and the
Turkish side again approved its commitment."
Unfortunately, shortly thereafter, a victory in parliamentary
elections by an Islamist party raised questions about whether this
strategically important transaction will ever be consummated. The
Associated Press reported on November 6 that "Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the
leader of the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party, said Turks
consider Israel's policies toward Palestinians to be 'terrorism.'" While he
went on to aver that "Turkey would not link its close economic relations
with Israel to popular anger," Erdogan nonetheless signaled that such anger
could prove inimical to ties between the two countries -- presumably
including water sales: "The whole Turkish population is very critical of
what is going on in Palestine. Our public does not view this as anything
anti-Israeli or anti-Semitic. They see it as the terrorism of Sharon."
o Then there is the "Road-map" being touted by the Bush Administration
and its partners in the so-called "Quartet" (the European Union, Russia and
the United Nations). This plan would call for Israel to relinquish to a new
Palestinian state control over territory that would encompass many
watersheds of the West Bank. Since roughly 40% of Israel's fresh water
comes from such sources, the prospect that a future Palestinian government
would act as Syria has done in the past and as Lebanon (Syria's colony) is
doing now, by unilaterally diverting vital water from Israeli cities and
farms, is clearly an intolerable one for the Jewish State.
A "comprehensive settlement" of the sort fancied by the Quartet
would also require Israel to give back to Syria the Golan Heights, whose
watersheds provide Israel with another 30% of its fresh water. Even if such
a territorial concession were prudent militarily -- and it is not under
present and foreseeable circumstances -- it could be tantamount to
state-icide. No amount of conservation would enable Israel's economy and
society to subsist, let alone to thrive, in the face of the cumulative
effects of all these reductions in water supply.
The recent sniper attacks in the Washington area gave Americans an
appreciation of the traumatizing uncertainty that has for years been the lot
in life of many Israelis: Will I be capriciously murdered today? The
droughts being experienced by many parts of the United States should
similarly sensitize us to an existential question that Israelis have to
confront on a national level: Will their country be forced to choose
between dying of thirst or having again to wage war in order to secure
necessary water resources?
