Commodities Stabilize

Posted: Oct 10, 2012 12:01 AM

Commodities firmed up in overnight trading even as the dollar gained more ground against the euro. 

In early trading gold was down $1.94 to $1,775.35 and silver was off $0.09 to $33.99, for a silver/gold ratio of 52.2.  Though gold and silver prices are technically down, they are down at higher prices than yesterday, an occasional quirk of global markets and the trading holiday on Monday. 

Other commodities are also having a good morning with platinum, palladium, copper and crude oil all higher.  The recovery in commodities comes as the dollar continues to gain ground against the euro after better than expected employment numbers in the U.S.

I am acutely aware that earlier this week I suggested gold would be moving higher and I still think we’re in for higher prices ahead.  The run up is being stalled by gains in the dollar and, while it temporarily makes my forecasting look bad, currency policy and interest rates are still firmly on the side of gold and silver traders in the days ahead. 

At times like these, when prices are higher, the gold and silver stackers I know sometimes turn to collectible coins.  The markup is higher on collectibles and the underlying prices of the metal is less significant. 

I don’t deal in coins because I don’t understand the business beyond what’s called “junk silver”, U.S. coins that were minted before 1965 with no numismatic value beyond the content of their silver. 

If you’re going to get into collectible coins, then I advise doing a lot of reading.  When my collectible stacker friends start talking coin lingo, it goes right over my head.  I tend to stick to bullion bars and rounds that come from the big names in the industry.  Consequently, when metals prices go up I’m on the sidelines, unless I’m selling. 

Another factor to consider is not where prices are but where they may be headed.  If the economy is off on another period of sustained recovery fueled by loose monetary policy, then we may see prices continue steadily higher. 

In that case the gold and silver prices we’re seeing today might be the new baseline and not just a temporary bull run.  If you didn’t buy gold in 2009 because prices were higher than 2008, then you missed two years of one of the greatest gold bull runs in history. 

Chris Poindexter, Senior Writer, National Gold Group, Inc