Welcome Aboard the Titanic!

Posted: Jan 07, 2012 12:01 AM

Do you remember the opening scene from James Cameron’s Titanic

On the dock before the inaugural voyage of perhaps the most luxurious and spacious cruise ship in history,   the revelry was overwhelming. 

Anyone who was anyone, from John Jacob Astor to Isidor Straus, all made sure they were on board that ship. 

However, to assume only the rich and well-to-do were on board, you would be very much mistaken.  The ship also contained lower levels for common folks. 

Excitement abounded, as the journey to New York City was for many a visit to a new land, and for others a return home. 

The tickets were sold-out and anyone trying to board without a ticket was out of luck.  However, the two-hour movie spectacular wouldn’t have been made if somehow our hero (Leonardo DiCaprio) couldn’t have boarded the vessel. 

Therefore, we had that fascinating and wonderful card game where our protagonist won not money, but a ticket to the new land of America. 

How fortunate he was, for it was a dream come true.  Tragically, however, it would soon become a veritable nightmare. 

Everyone was now on board, the magnificent ship could set sail, and sail it did, right into history. 

So it is now with the most recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) report.  All the folks measured have come to the overwhelming conclusion that the stock market is the place to be. 

In fact, 17.6% are bearish as compared to 50% bullish. 

This ratio of bears to bulls is one of the lowest ever, and compares to 1999 and 2007.  The irony is that over the past two years, the retail investor has been exiting the stock market in droves. 

As the market made its dramatic retracement from the bottom of 2009, people were not coming on board the ship, they were leaving it. 

Now that the new market voyage is underway in 2012, it seems that everyone wants to be on board. 

If in fact they have finally decided to return, it would make one of the greatest bell-ringing tops in history. 

Can’t you just see all the confetti and hear all the noisemakers before the launch of the Titanic?  Likewise, can’t you see all the confetti and hear the noisemakers as the markets of 2012 begin their journey? 

What’s the only difference? 

You don’t need to play a card game in order to get on board. 

The 2012 market cruise ship is still accepting passengers, but get on board at your own risk. 

Just like James Cameron’s Titanic, the 2012 market will suffer the very same catastrophic ending.       

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