Arabs like to look and talk tough; many are cowards on gentle steroids.
Why isn’t the Iran War finished? Why didn’t Donald Trump see the 89 percent job approval rating that George H. W. Bush enjoyed with the success of Desert Storm? There can be many answers. Little has to do with Iranian military success. Their navy is becoming the newest home to various fish species. Their air force is made of paper planes. No, the war is not over for a variety of reasons. The Vance/Witkoff detour allowed the mullahs to buy time without any intention of making a serious deal. And then there are Iran’s neighbors. They are terrified because they are exposed.
When discussing Nazis of yore, nobody spoke of “good” Nazis or “nice” Nazis or “reasonable” Nazis. All Nazis were evil, period. So I’d like to dump all of the local Arabs in the same bin, but I keep coming back to the UAE. I have previously written of our positive visit there and my impressions of their seriousness. The difference between them and their feckless “brothers” is a key reason why the mullocracy is still in business. Whereas the UAE actually flew combat sorties and got Israel to send Iron Dome batteries, the Jew-hating Qataris, Kuwaitis, and Saudis are totally unprepared for any further Iranian attacks. And rather than steel themselves for battle, they would rather fold like a combination of a cheap suit and a lousy folding chair.
The local sheikdoms have lots of exposed infrastructure. During previous rounds of projectile emissions, their gas and oil fields were easily hit by Iranian drones and missiles. And rather than engage Israel to help protect such important and valuable assets, they would rather appease the IRGC and hope that they come back to kill them in a decade or so. So it was that the chief Qatari appeaser came to the White House last week, and there are reports of a two-week grace period when the U.S. will not attack. Donald Trump is employing his standard Razzle Dazzle program where he can say in consecutive sentences that we will send Iran back decades through massive bombing, there are negotiations, and he doesn’t think that we will need any further military activity. Now we add a “shouting match from hell” with Bibi Netanyahu. Everybody is off-balance, just as the president likes it. If I were a chief military adviser to the Mullah of the Month, I would quietly flee the country rather than try to guess what the U.S.’ immediate plans are.
Most people in Israel still feel that there will be more kinetic activity, but nobody seems to know when. The inconclusive Israeli elections and the possible unseating of Netanyahu pretty much don’t matter, for the very simple reason that Donald Trump will tell Israel what to do — and Israel will be fully ready to do it. One thing I have noticed over decades of both U.S. and Israeli politics is that there is this invisible force that makes politicians act like the guy they are not. It was lefty Ehud Olmert who bombed the Syrian nuclear reactor because Israel could not wait until it was fueled. The former “bulldozer” of settlements, Ariel Sharon, was the one who yanked the Jews out of Gaza. And in the U.S., one often sees politicians of both Left and Right bending to either “reality,” political necessity, or a view from the inside that looks different from the outside when they ran for office. Both Obama and Biden sent Israel lots of weapons, however much they want a Jew-hating Palestinian state.
So Israel would probably like to bomb Iran into the past tense. But the immediate neighbors of Iran — save the UAE — are terrified of being struck and crippled. Qatar has made contracts to buy American liquefied natural gas until 2054. They were a major exporter, but their fields — which are shared with Iran — were attacked by Iran, ostensibly due to Qatar hosting American forces. The Saudis are getting their behinds kicked by the khat-chewing Houthis. The Aramco Tower was recently hit by one of their missiles. While the Saudis have the best of American hardware, they have a lousy fighting ethos. My son claims that they have lost many planes but are hiding this fact from the Saudi people. I have no definitive data on that point, though they seem incapable of defeating what is generally described as a ragtag outfit. Israel didn’t do much better, but she does not share a land border with them, and the exchanges of fire have been few and far between.
I don’t think that anyone normal would be pushing for the bombing of Iran without admitting that there are serious risks of destruction, injuries, and possibly deaths. Attacking Iran does not come free for Israel, but whereas the sheikhs just want quiet today, Israel wants quiet forever. The sheikhs are terrified to change Iran; Israel is terrified to leave Iran be. Iran and Israel had great relations until 1979. Many people, this author included, would love to visit Tehran and come home with souvenirs and not death threats.
On the subject of the end of $3.8 billion in military subsidies to Israel, one should always be careful what he wishes for. On the PR side, it’s a good move. It ends the loudmouths like Carlson and Massie claiming that the U.S. is giving oh so much money to Israel or is funding fake “genocide.” But the money was spent at over 90 percent in the U.S., so if you see an unemployed Lockheed or Boeing engineer, don’t blame Israel. The flipside of the story is that Israel is now free to make its own munitions and use them as she sees fit. Remember, every recent president has either delayed weapons deliveries or told Israel when and where to attack. Not anymore. The U.S. killed the Lavi fighter ostensibly because Israel had export plans that could have harmed sales of U.S. fighters. When Israel canceled the program, 90 F-16s were offered to her for sale from the U.S. Going forward, Israel can develop — or buy from other countries — what it needs and take care of business based on national security considerations and not what The New York Times or Democrats will say tomorrow. The U.S. may miss that switch, which it could use to manage its own international interests.
Many years ago, El Al was in the market for some new planes. It then flew and still only flies Boeing models: 737, 777, and 787 (with the 18th copy of the carbon fiber bird arriving last week to great fanfare). Airbus tried to get some of the Israeli business, and I recall seeing a mock-up of a mini-synagogue that they offered to put into their planes. The U.S. reminded Israel who gives her so much aid, and El Al once again chose Boeing. And while El Al is all Boeing and changing suppliers would have logistics implications for parts, tooling, etc., does Israel have to keep shopping from the U.S. after the latter cuts off its funding? While there will always be a great love of the United States in Israel — as well as an appreciation for all of her support — ending the aid means that Israel will take care of its own business. The U.S. on several occasions banned Israel from providing weapons systems or plane improvements to other countries. Those days may just be in the past. So, whereas the Israel haters may have thought that they won, the U.S. in the end may regret this move to appease the Jew haters, and it might be buying billions of dollars in Israeli tech that used to flow between the countries. What tech does the U.S. get from the Saudis or Qataris? Nothing.