The fact that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree recently calling for elections this coming November is the first red flag indicating that the elections will probably not happen. If they do, there will be no semblance of democracy. Democratic elections are not set by decree, and certainly not by someone who is serving more than two decades of the four-year term to which he was elected (2005), since the last such election.
While he has scheduled elections multiple times in the last 20 years, he has also canceled each of them for a myriad of reasons/excuses, some of which remain valid along with other new reasons why odds that the election taking place this year are less than 50 percent.
Abbas and Fatah have not controlled Gaza since 2007. Any credible vote among two million Palestinian Arab Gazans is extremely difficult at best, if not impossible, given that Hamas still controls much of Gaza.
The outcome of Israel’s October 27 elections could be used as an excuse to “postpone” the PA elections as a pretext for the overriding concern being the risk of his losing the PA election itself. Abbas knew about the Israeli election months before decreeing the PA election, making it reasonable to probable that the date was deliberate in order to cancel again, and blame Israel.
Israel has historically restricted Palestinian Arab voting in sovereign Israeli territory, an excuse used for canceling previous elections, that is unlikely to change.
Deep divisions among Fatah rivals who might challenge Abbas’ leadership and the PA’s cronyism, along with low public trust in the PA, and Abbas’ advanced age create incentives to delay if the outcome looks unfavorable.
Abbas introduced election rules aimed at limiting or excluding Hamas (requiring acceptance of the PLO program and recognition of past agreements). Nevertheless, Hamas and other factions are exploring ways to participate or form alliances, raising the risk of confrontation or boycott.
Abbas previously scheduled elections and then canceled them when it became clear the results might not favor his Fatah (PLO) ruling party and Hamas would win. This has been an ongoing factor as to why there have not been PA elections in more than twenty years, exacerbated by multiple failed attempts at a ṣulḥa (reconciliation) to overcome the Fatah–Hamas split and related often violent political disputes.
Simply, there is no basis for democratic leadership in a culture that is tribal, and one whose very existence is based on juxtaposition of the establishment of Israel with its primary goal to eliminate the Jewish state rather than create a democratic and prosperous Palestinian Arab state.
The irony of the November 28 date is that it is one day before the anniversary in 1947 when the United Nations voted to partition what was then British Mandatory Palestine into an Arab state and a Jewish state. We all know what happened. The Jewish leadership accepted the partition, even on a tiny sliver of what was their ancestral homeland. The Arab leaders rejected it and went to war immediately.
It’s also worth noting that at the time, not only was there no independent Palestinian state that anyone occupied, but there was no separate Palestinian Arab national identity nor any infrastructures of a state. Gaza was ruled and occupied by Egypt, and Jordan occupied and annexed the heartland of the Land of Israel – Judea, Samaria and the center of Jerusalem — also pejoratively referred to as the West Bank.
Albeit with improbable odds of a PA election happening, it’s worth an analysis of what the outcomes might be.
First, there are reports that 90-year-old Abbas himself wants his son, Yasser, to succeed him. That not only flies in the face of anything democratic, but it emphasizes the cronyism and nepotism that has come to define the Palestine Authority, and why even Palestinian Arabs look at their “elected” leaders askance.
There are a few notable people within the framework of Abbas’ Fatah-PLO terrorist faction who could challenge him directly. Probably none within his existing leadership structure would do so. Too many are making tons of money in salaries, graft, and other investments. None would choose to cut off the hand that is feeding them.
However, there are two people most frequently mentioned who could be contenders and receive a popular vote that would oust the current kleptocracy.
One is Mohammed Dahlan, a former PLO leader from Gaza, who fled for his life after the bloody 2007 Hamas coup in which so many of Dahlan’s contemporaries were lynched and thrown off the top of buildings as Hamas consolidated its grip on two million Gazans. Since then, he has been exiled in the United Arab Emirates with heavy security, and an eye on the opportunity to return. It’s been reported recently that he’s even been in conversation with Israeli security officials.
The other potential challenger and person frequently mentioned as the successor to Abbas is terrorist leader Marwan Barghouti who is currently serving five life sentences for murdering Israelis. Because he is in prison, the society that celebrates the massacre of innocent civilians looks at him as a hero. If he were to run and win, it would be the first time in modern history that somebody was elected to be the leader of a government from inside prison.
Nasser al-Kidwa is a longshot contender but, as nephew of PLO leader and founder of the Palestinian Arab national movement and terrorist Yasser Arafat who is still revered among Palestinian Arabs, he’s the closest thing to royalty they have in their six-decade old history.
Either Dahlan or Barghouti running would fragment the Fatah-PLO vote and weaken Abbas’s control.
Compounding this, external challenges are probable from Hamas or other terrorist entities entering the race. While recent polls indicate Hamas has lost influence among Palestinian Arabs since the October 7 massacre and ensuing war, also because of how they have slaughtered their own domestic internal opponents, and placed millions of Palestinian Arabs in harm’s way, they are playing the long game and seek influence little by little to dominate and terrorize both their own people as well as Israelis of all backgrounds.
During the last PA legislative election in 2006, Palestinian Arabs voted overwhelmingly in favor of Hamas, winning 74 of 132 seats, as compared to Fatah’s 45 seats. This could be the will of the Palestinian Arabs again. In short, you give an inch, they will take a mile. Perhaps more appropriately, they will use that influence and power to build hundreds of miles of tunnels and terrorist infrastructure.
Don’t bet on a PA election happening any time soon. But if it does happen, these are the probably outcomes. None of which will lead to peace and reconciliation among Palestinian Arabs, much less with Israel.
Join the Inspiration from Zion webinar series on September 16, at 1:00pm Eastern time do discuss this and how Palestinian Authority elections might impact Israeli elections and visa versa.