This Vulnerable House GOP Member Has Found an Unlikely Ally

There is a House seat that is prime for the taking by Democrats. You’d think that with the final stages of the 2026 midterms on the horizon, they’d push for it. They’re not doing so for now, and the reasoning is quite simple: they don’t have the money. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) could be clipped, but Democrat operatives fear the resources required would be too great, as Lawler is more centrist and politically savvy. Simply put, some Democrat strategists think he’s unbeatable this year (via Axios):

Rep. Mike Lawler's (R-N.Y.) fight to hold on to a key battleground seat is getting a behind-the-scenes assist — for now, at least — from an unlikely group: House Democrats.

Why it matters: Kamala Harris carried Lawler's district in 2024, but some Democrats are privately wary of spending the small fortune it would take to oust one of the GOP's most bipartisan — and electorally savvy — members.

"If you're going to have a Republican, it's the kind of Republican we want in the Congress," a Democratic source told Axios of Lawler, also noting that the New York City area is the nation's most expensive media market.

A senior House Democrat told Axios: "I don't think Lawler is beatable."

State of play: Republicans are outspending Democrats more than 40 to 1 on current and future ad reservations in New York's 17th District, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

The House Republican leadership–aligned super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has a whopping $6.7 million reserved in the district.

That is on top of $2.8 million from the Lawler campaign and $2.1 million from outside GOP group Americans for Open Government.

Democratic leadership–aligned nonprofit House Majority Forward is the only group with ad reservations in the district, at just $270,000 reserved.

But this is a shaky truce of sorts. The outlet added that there’s healthy skepticism about Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) ceding this race, noting the deteriorating relationship between the two New York lawmakers. We’ll see, but for now, Lawler is extra safe because of House Democrats.