It’s not over, but you can already see where Abdul El-Sayed will need to put in serious effort to improve his chances of winning that Michigan Senate seat. AES narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in a tense primary that was expected to be a landslide for him. Yes, it’s the furthest he has ever advanced in his quest for elected office. It also highlights the strong opposition he faces, as he struggled significantly with black and Jewish voters, the two largest minority groups in the state. He’s also unpopular among rural voters. The elite class supports him. El-Sayed won none of the counties where college degrees are the lowest share of the electorate. Might as well stamp ‘elitist’ on his forehead.

El-Sayed faces off against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who, if he can flip Michigan, will secure a lock for a GOP majority in the 2026 midterm Senate races. The race is already considered a toss-up, although it was labeled ‘lean D’ before AES’ win. Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn predicts that Stevens voters will likely cross party lines to vote Republican. Even if only five percent do so, it could tilt the race in favor of Rogers.

Can El-Sayed pull this off? Will he have the skills to do so? At present, no — not right now: