I used the wrong link. The link I posted is an argument, but not a very thorough one.
http://andrews.blogtownhall.com/2008/04/13/a_less_uncertain _future.thtmlThis one is more along the lines of what you argue. Though I am arguing that his handling of Wright, followed by his slander of voters in Pennsylvania created a public impression he did too little to dispel, I think it actually works with your argument.
His handling of oil is yet another example of his out of touch, doctrinaire liberal position, which simply will not win him the independents, or even conservative Democrats he needs.
And if he now changes position, it will alienate his base, but will not convince the center, who already have an impression of him and will simply see a change of position as an attempt to gain votes and not a true change of heart.