Hostile Media and Polls

theory.

I wonder if there's any way to demonstrate that this phenomenon occurs only during times of crisis?

Some polling services keep lists of Democrats, Republicans, Men, Women, etc.
They claim this is so they can poll representative samples proportionate to the district.
Who is to judge what proportion?
They can program the outcome by jugling the percent of whatever they poll.

Slanted questions also predetermine outcome of polls by the options offered for answers.

I don't know of any way to prevent a poll from being rigged.
The only thing a poll tells me is the opinion of the pollster.

...of a copier are worn or glazed it will "skew" the paper yet the image will still print where the middle of the page ought to be. The end result is whats termed as a skewed image. As I understand it. I'm not a copier tech, by the way. But this reminds me of what you're saying here about the Polling biz. Thats why a politician would do well to simply consider the polls as just one factor in the overall. And there are other factors to pay attention to. Not just the results of polls. I think the resent Immigration upheaval certainly demonstrates this. The politicians were blind-sided.
Great Piece BG!. Stop by for a visit at my site sometime. DD

I was polled about the war in Iraq. The poll questions were so slanted, that "dissatisfaction with the war" automatically meant to the pollster that I/we want to withdraw. These were the choices:

1) Stay the course.

2) Withdraw gradually after 1-2 years.

3) Withdraw immediately.

What choices!!! I jumped all over the pollster, and asked "Isn't there a 'none of the above', or how 'bout a 4th choice of 'KICK AS$!!'?

The pollster didn't know what to do with me, and kept apologizing for the wording of the questions. Another example:

"Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the progress in Iraq?"

Answer: Dissatisfied -- BUT NOT BECAUSE I WANT OUR BRAVE TROOPS TO GIVE UP IN DEFEAT, BUT BECAUSE I WANT OUR TROOPS TO KICK BUTT!!

See, these polls (mine was by NBC news)are slanted in a way to satisfy the pollster company's preconceived notions. I also speculate that the country is much more Right leaning than the Media wants us to believe, because THEY'RE LEFTISTS.

As long as we are talking about polls, it should be noted that Ron Paul is conspicuously absent from many polls when asking voters for their preference. Brownback and Tancredo, both of which are usually trailing Ron Paul in straw polls and debate polls, are always present, however.

Whether or not you agree with Ron Paul, this is a clear bias against his candidacy. Further, when you consider the fact that cell phones are usually not polled, Ron Paul's poll numbers are probably skewed here as well. Most of his support is young, and a large percentage of those under 40 use the cell phone as their primary phone. I have heard estimates of a 3-5% boost in his poll numbers that are hidden in this cell phone loophole.

So instead of a 3% share, Ron Paul could have a 6-8% share of the votes. This puts him right up with Romney in the latest Gallup poll. This would make him a top tier candidate.

Also, consider that most polls are aimed at "likely" voters. Since the last real Republican primary was held in 2000, that means that any voter under the age of 26 has probably never voted in a primary. Add the fact that there are independents and democrats switching parties to vote for Ron Paul, and his actual support could be quite a bit higher than currently reported.

In the primary, many MSM polls are still of adults or registered voters. That tends to over state national support for Rudy and McCain, partly because they are better known and partly because they are more liberal. Polls of adults include illegal aliens and substantial numbers of non voters who tend to be more liberal.

It is very hard to identify the actual 24% of adults who will vote republican in the average primary. Likely voter screens vary in method and produce different results depending on the method.

An adjustment can be made for cell phones by weighting for cell phones. Most polls do not weigh for cell phones. It usually does not make a lot of difference. However, in Ron Paul's case it may.

National polls at this point (1 Oct., 07) are still mostly measuring name recognition and image. Besides there is no national primary. It is mythical information that is created to sell advertising for the MSM.

The state polls where there have been extensive campaigning are a better indicator of how the race is going. The state polls at this point are not very precise and often have wide variations based on the methods employed.

If you feel that Ron Paul's support is understated you can hire a national pollster for a few thousand and commission a poll with methods you feel are appropriate. Some of the MSM polls are based on samples of 300 or so.