Bad Analysis = Bad Policy

Disgruntled - my guess would be that similar bad analysis = bad policy scenarios played out w/ the expansion of big government regulation and the welfare state beginning at least with FDR, continuing under every president since (and I'm glaring at YOU LBJ!).

But more to the point, I think there's also at least an element of the "never waste a good crisis" in some of these things, too. I think there may be a good argument to make that "progressives" who believe in the power and ability of government to "fix" whatever crisis is facing the country at any given time is also an important part of how we've been saddled with a completely overgrown and out of control federal government.

Perhaps your formula could be amended somehow to incorporate "unbridled confidence in government ability," but it seems it could go on both sides of the equation!