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Comment on: Michael's World

Where do we go when the Oil is gone.

5 Comments

Why is it either or?

I respectfully ask why does it have to be a question of drill or develop alternative sources? There is no question that for now we must drill. Our economy cannot survive 4.00 even 5.00 or 6.00 gas and likewise to the derivitives you speak of.

alternatives need to be developed I won't argue with that, but to force economic disaster when it is not necessary is poor planning.

Multi prong approach 2

Points 1,2,4 and 6: The market, with continues escalation of gas prices will achieve these goals on its own. Europe and Japan already have much of what you listgenerally without government mandate. Here are some of the gasoline prices in Europe and Asia:
Global Gasoline Retail Prices (latest)
Country/Region US$/gal
Norway 10.37
Germany 9.20
Britain 8.56
Hong Kong 8.33
South Korea 7.38
Singapore 6.06
Brazil 6.02
Japan 5.83
Canada 5.49
India 5.15
United States 4.03
Russia 3.97
Malaysia 3.18
China 2.80
Indonesia 2.46
Mexico 2.35
Saudi Arabia 0.45
Nigeria 0.38
Venezuela 0.19

What we really do not need is a huge bureaucracy mandating, monitoring, fining, and throwing people in jail.

Point 3. No refineries have been built in the US since the 1970's. Capacity has been increased slightly and the ability to refine heavy oil has been added by some refiners, particularly Valero, but we have a supply constriction that plays out with higher cost volatility of refined product whenever there is a weather event or refiner fire or some other supply threat. We actually import some gasoline. Last week, we imported 1,356,000 barrels of gasoline. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgtimus2w.htm
About one third of that came from Canada and was refined from US crude oil. We can build refineries now if the politicians gain the will to curb the extreme environmentalists movement. Again, ever increasing gas prices will ultimately change the politicians and curb the environmentalists.

multi prong approach 3

Point 7. Re-regulate the airlines is essentially what you're saying. Not likely but if the socialists get control, who knows?

Point 8. The market will decide and seek the most efficient method of shipment as energy prices rise. No need for banning trucking.

Point 9. Nuclear energy through fission is safe and the technology is tried and true. Nuclear fusion will require at least 50 more years of R&D before it will have practical application. We should continue to fund research but not count on it in the near future. It obviously has the potential to be our future permanant energy source.

To think that solar, wind, wave, and geothermal are going to replace hydrocarbons in the next 5 to 10 years is a pipe dream. Even nuclear fission won't cure our interim problems. We need a unified vision for the production of all types of energy with the alternate renewable types increasing over time to a dominant position. This isn't going to happen overnight. It will be decades. In the meantime we must drill here and drill now.

smoke etc

michael: I don't know where you get your information but Valero did not come from Citgo. Be careful of conspiracy nonsense on the internet. Use Snopes.com to filter that stuff out. Here is the history of Valero and you will find nothing pointing to citgo. http://www.valero.com/AboutUs/History.htm
Valero is strictly a refiner so they buy all of their crude on the open market. They are an importer of Venezuelan crude but are not a part of Citgo.
We imported 2,426,000 barrels of crude oil from Canada in 2007. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_e p00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm

You need to refine the sources of info you use.

There will be a new pipeline from Alberta to Port Arthur, TX. http://www.dailysentinel.com/news/content/news/stories/200 8/06/24/county_keystone0624.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=1 0

Nuclear fusion for electrical production is 40 to 50 years away. The technology is still in research. Check this reference on Wiikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
No fusion plant until 2050 and that is if untested technologies check out. How will that give us energy now?

When oil is gone...

You are right that we need to dedicate resources to developing renewable energy for transportation and transportation that can run on it. However, you are wrong when you claim we are "running" out of oil. How could we be running out of oil if we allow Communist countries (including Hugo Chavez's) to drill for oil off our shores--while our Congress continues to forbid American companies from drilling oil there? What is it about ANWR that you love so much that an oilrig would despoil? A valley on the moon looks friendlier. The fact is that the anti-American crowd will oppose any solution that does not bring this country to its knees. Are you one of those? How Green are you? Would you kill a baby to save a bird? That is why malaria continues to kill people in Africa. The UN outlawed its use after Europe and the USA had used DDT to spray malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Greens have us committed to ethanol--and now food prices soar and the poor hunger. Greens seem wise, until we use their solutions and find them worse than the problem.