Your Vote: Who Gets the Democratic Nomination?

obama takes it, even if he is down in KY by 36 points right now.

Obama has the DNC and media support pushing for him. This is the same reason McCain is the republican nominee. In the end I don't think the superdooperdelagates have the nads to deny him.

It's going to be a tough one for them particularly with Hillary polling 9 points ahead of McCain in a recent AP poll. August is still a long way off politically so it may be too soon to be making predictions.

As it stands right now I'd say Obama.

P.S. That's not privacy inside the beltway, it's called being trapped. Nobody can leave because of the traffic and few enter voluntarily. LOL!

Don't count Hillary out yet,she is capable of ANYTHING to get this nomination and will not give up,a much tougher and smarter person than her opponent.

The winner of the Democratic nomination and the next President Of The United States, the first woman to be elected to the office, Hillary Rodham Clinton. She will win big in Indiana and North Carolina as Obama sinks in the polls. This Wright business has destroyed Obama's 'brand' as they say in marketing. Its terminal. The Inside The Beltway Dems hate the Clints with a burning passion (kind of like us with McLame) and although its hard to imagine Ted Kennedy, Howard Dean or Bill Richardson being very happy about it I dont think they'll have any choice.

I don't think the supers will move to hillary. My reason for thinking that is: At this point in the primaries Obama is still in the lead. The black vote is a huge, huge voting group for the democrats. If Obama gets to here in the lead and the super delegates move to hillary, that could spell some major trouble for them. With that said I think Hillary has a better chance in the general election, but the supers cannot deny a black man in the democratic party that has gotten this far.

As of the minute I think he has the edge with the Dem powers so anxious to get rid of Hillary.
but I agree, it's too early to tell. It will be interesting to see what happens between now and the convention.

The people who vote for him won't even hear the Wright story or, if they do, will not be disturbed by it

You're right, the Wright stuff wont sink him with his core voters or the media but I dont think it plays well with blue collar whites or latinos. Latinos never liked him much but now they really dont like him. His likely opponent, McLame, is acceptable to latinos who want amnesty, which is a majority but not as large a majority as you might think. If you're working construction you dont want ten other people begging your boss for work and driving wages down. A lot of latinos are successful, taxpaying citizens who feel the same about paying for an army of freeloaders as anybody else.

i'm running this one all week, i'm serious. i'm tired of watching this circus. i live near the rust belt, and i just want to pray with my gun in my lap right now for awhile. (i got really upset over the economy and joined a church, and then i ran right out and bought a gun)... i am soooooo tired of watching this crap w/the democrats having their Worst Knife Fight Ever. so i'm going to enjoy this for awhile without actually putting on a full post, and i'm already enjoying all the traffic on here! i was delighted to have been able to bribe sarge and skep onto this post, but look, other unsolicited people came, too! and emjayne, it's an honor to see you on here, and i mean that. i visit emjayne's blog every day, and she has shown me that less can indeed be more, and i'm quite serious. i love emjayne's blog! i'm blogging through this post for at least a week. even jimmy carter can't move me to write a post.

have-you-hugged-your-hamas-today jimmy carter. not carter the blogger. but speaking of jimmy carter the blogger, is obesity ever going to have a solution over there? come on, carter! resurface.

realclearpolitics polls show obama BEHIND clinton in NORTH CAROLINA in one poll, and that's not a notoriously unreliable poll, either. in another poll, he is still ahead, but by less than one-third of his once crushing twenty-five point lead. this is very bad news, i think, for obama.

Obama should win in NC but this will probably tighten up over the weekend.

ANOTHER ONE?

yow!

you're right, of course, here he'd come. but i'm wondering more about... do you think one of them would tap him for VP? i can't picture the dems dropping a bomb on all these voters from their own party and saying none of it mattered. would he even WANT VP? would he take it? he notably didn't endorse hillary. would he sit, hoping that obama took it, then count on obama coming after him for VP? i thought at first obama would tap richardson... gads, what a mess. and it's may!

Doc's scenario has merit. The dems could use a "white knight", for that matter so could we, and Gore would be just about the only loose big name dem they have left.

i wouldn't count it out at all. the only thing is, though, what about all these primaries? what about the past four months? won't this infuriate a lot of their own voters? that's the only reason i'd think they might not do it in the end.

Thank you for kind comments beltway. I am brief because I can't read long ones, so I assume no one else can. :-)))
Been hospital sitting for two days...husband in with pneumonia. home and fine now.

I can't believe you guys think Al Gore is going to be around! It isn't bad enough already??
a "white knight">>???? hysterical!
I guess, after watching this campaign, anything is possible with the Dems.

is right! do i sound like a democrat? i guess more importantly, do i sound like an idiot?

aren't they the same thing?

we're all right, at this point. chance for obama, chance for clinton, chance for gore, or some other big bomb candidate. doc's absolutely, 100%, right. as usual. sarge is right that it's a long way off yet, emjayne's right when she says obama's candidates are so impassioned, they just won't care (and sarge is right when he says that many of those impassioned supporters are in the media). he's also right when he says this is how mccain got as far as he did. doc's the big winner in suggesting that this bunch might well wake up and recognize they don't have a hope in hell w/either one in november. drillbit
is right in that hillary would half-kill obama to get the nomination, and ck's right in that the dems are so tied to affirmative action that they wouldn't dream of yanking this from obama.

good golly, but this is interesting! and this is why i'm running this blog post for a week. i am pretty much fixated on this right now. i have nothing to say. i'm just watching. i stand by my obama prediction, but i'm sure not positive. i've got a combo on ck/sarge thinking and my own. ck says they'll never have the nerve to yank from obama (so does sarge)... i agree. i also think obama has managed the wright affair as of late with a great deal of finesse. yup, i think he pulls it off.

(chuckle) but i'm sure not certain! and quit blushing, emjayne...

on that last comment. obama's SUPPORTERS.

(chuckles) hard to tell w/the rev. wright.

and sorry about the time lapse after drillbit.

yes, i am EXHAUSTED.

okay? and this is the MOST fun blog post i've had yet.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/electio n_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_track ing_poll

john mccain! looking good... (okay, look sarge, i'm sorry. but i'm still bouncing like a pinball from the dems)...

sarge is right. the fact that i'd be charismatically drawn to the mccain campaign is a frightening thing, indeed. i'm being driven by fear from an obamathon.

and quit blushing, emjayne! i mean it.

I stopped !
Will just bow low and bow out! :-)))

? just teasing. keep blushing! sorry to be like that, honestly. i hope you're not offended or something, seriously.

seemed to experience a little bit of a bounce in NC polls later yesterday, but now as the tightening sets in, it is once again not looking good for obama, and the pundits are ALL over this at RCP.

is showing that skep was REALLY right)...

matthew continetti, weekly standard.

duh!

Obama said that because his mother is white and his father is black, it is in his DNA to bring this country together. I wonder how many weeks it took them to write that line.

I knew Obama would get sympathy for distancing himself from Wright (it's a small distance).

Prediction: Obama by a hair and a riot in Denver to boot.

he did a good job distancing himself from Wright. It came off as pure semi-solid bovine excrement.

Of course, if the supers give the nod to Hitlery!(tm), there will be riots all across the country.

I know I posted a pro-Hillary comment earlier but I think I might change my vote. The dislike of Hillary is now so great that even Obama's association with Wright hasnt sunk him. If she doesnt win Indiana by at least five points, and that looks unlikely at this point, and win even by a squeaker in NC than there becomes no scenario where she can stampede the SooperDooper Delegates into voting for her in sufficient numbers to make a difference. The Clint's bad kharma has finally come home to roost, as a famous man of religion once said.

both states, +9 NC, +2> IN...

well, i think we're looking at the scream ticket.

Looks like it's over. McC and Ob are ignoring Hillary and starting for each other.
I can't figure out which scares me more...Barack or Michelle. (New post by me on Michelle)
THERE IS NO QUESTION...IT'S MCCAIN OR SOCIALISM.

But my question is, What are the supers waiting for?? I think they are just typical liberals and are afraid of making a decision on their own, and so every one of them are waiting to see which way the wind blows and where the Fit is going to land.

Then they'll all jump on like lemmings over a cliff.

You are right . They each want their 15 min. also.
Probably once the checkers start to fall there will be a cascade.

Beltway Girl, do you have a blog outside of Townhall?

If so let me know. I have one at http://www.laughtech.blogspot.com...I reserve it for some of my more risky ideas and commentary that the good folks at Townhall may not like.

Laughtech

I am rudely interrupting everyone's blog to say I have a new post which I think is important. :-)
You can all yell at me later.

She's going to drop the ecology crap REAL FAST and call for emergency offshore oil drilling. You'll see. The other two are too clueless to figure it out.

trust me, i believe it.

first off, emjayne, commercials are always welcome from you!

next off, laughtech, i have no other blog. and i have hardly been able to keep up w/this one since little league started. much thanks for laughtech's outside blog, which i plan on checking out this weekend.

both you guys have to check out skep's latest blog post, which i thoroughly rah-rahed!

fingers in the wind

a bunch of gutless wimps waiting for marching orders from the prevailing direction.

the dems at work.

Letter to Congress on my blog

I just got back. Are you still around?

yes! absolutely, but i've got my hands full, all right. glad to hear you're around! i've been working the little league concession stand. (ring pops are fifty cents...)

hey, whadya think of the supremes' ruling on guns? pretty interesting!

boy oh boy, this election's going to be quite something. i knew it would be obama. wesley clark...

can you believe wesley clark? i'm hoping for a discussion of wesley clark's comments on the mclaughlin group (i LOVE john mclaughlin)...

Obama was no surprise. It was troubling to be so happy over the SCOTUS confirming what I always thought everyone knew the 2nd amendment meant. Still, I'll take that victory as the most important one in my lifetime.

Clark does a really bad imitation of a general. GunnyG has a post concerning this guy that says it all. Check out his "Perfumed Prince" article.